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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
1nvoker1e46m3HauchnSineNooneEI
Record (consensus markets)no settled market17% (155–752, n=907)no settled market97% (214–6, n=220)
Consensus PnL$4.2K$536K$114K$1.0M
Tracked asPM monthly #938PM monthly #2PM monthly #144PM monthly #106
Sides with the consensus61% (38 of 62 open)73% (314 of 430 open)47% (7 of 15 open)100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnot computed yetnot computed yet
Weakest topic—Tech ±0 pts, n=36——
Settled positions, side won—93% of 626 at avg 90¢, ROI +2%——
Entries under 30¢—7% (won 11% of 46)——
Entries 30–50¢—1% (won 86% of 7)——
Entries 50–70¢—1% (won 75% of 8)——
Entries 70¢ and up—90% (won 100% of 565)——

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market1nvoker1e46m3HauchnSineNooneEI
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $1.2KYes $4.3K—
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $2.2KYes $100—
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.2KYes $61——
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $216No $291—
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $346No $27——
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $79No $231—
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $2.1KNo $23K—
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $754Yes $3.0K—
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $214Yes $7—
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $26Yes $105—
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
same side · consensus No
Yes $39Yes $6——