Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
328.400.fund999585e46m3Hauchn
Record (consensus markets)no settled market89% (49–6, n=55)17% (155–752, n=907)no settled market
Consensus PnL$89$273K$536K$114K
Tracked asPM monthly #100PM monthly #103PM monthly #2PM monthly #144
Sides with the consensus55% (11 of 20 open)100% (1 of 1 open)73% (313 of 430 open)47% (7 of 15 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnot computed yetnot computed yet
Weakest topic——Tech ±0 pts, n=36—
Settled positions, side won——93% of 626 at avg 90¢, ROI +2%—
Entries under 30¢——7% (won 11% of 46)—
Entries 30–50¢——1% (won 86% of 7)—
Entries 50–70¢——1% (won 75% of 8)—
Entries 70¢ and up——90% (won 100% of 565)—

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market328.400.fund999585e46m3Hauchn
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——No $1.2KYes $4.3K
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $2.9K—Yes $19—
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
——No $2.2KYes $100
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——Yes $216No $291
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
——Yes $79No $231
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
——No $2.1KNo $23K
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $754Yes $3.0K
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus No
——Yes $214Yes $7
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
same side · consensus Yes
No $157—No $7—
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $26Yes $104
Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $10—Yes $29—