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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 47% (6811–7553, n=14364) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (537–652, n=1189) | 50% (992–980, n=1972) |
| Consensus PnL | $323K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #167 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 79% (127 of 160 open) | no open consensus position | 85% (50 of 59 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −5 pts, n=1795 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 50% of 15665 at avg 53¢, ROI +1% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 99% of 919 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 33% (won 5% of 5170) | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 5% (won 94% of 49) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 11% (won 32% of 1674) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 42% (won 99% of 382) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 52% of 1769) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 49% (won 99% of 446) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 45% (won 86% of 7052) | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 5% (won 100% of 42) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
11 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.