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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Bilberry | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (2655–2425, n=5080) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 65% (863–456, n=1319) |
| Consensus PnL | $47K | $11.0M | $5.6M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #925 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 71% (12 of 17 open) | 89% (147 of 166 open) | no open consensus position | 66% (48 of 73 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 43% of 3501 at avg 40¢, ROI +3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 44% (won 18% of 1527) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 43% of 707) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 18% (won 62% of 629) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 18% (won 85% of 638) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.