Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankferrariChampions2026FlaznorpS-Works
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)43% (11439–14898, n=26337)53% (7602–6859, n=14461)75% (2546–856, n=3402)
Consensus PnL$7.6M$3.1M$4.1M$3.7M
Tracked asPM monthly #3was PM monthly #87PM monthly #11PM monthly #73
Sides with the consensus89% (32 of 36 open)58% (19 of 33 open)65% (131 of 201 open)67% (2 of 3 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
not computed yet
  • Tennis +13 pts n=52, ROI +24%
  • NHL +9 pts n=58, ROI +14%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
  • Esports +5 pts n=492, ROI +4%
  • MLB +4 pts n=308, ROI −2%
  • NBA +3 pts n=383, ROI +1%
Weakest topic——Other Sports −28 pts, n=15Crypto −1 pts, n=46
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%—56% of 1398 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)—29% (won 11% of 403)6% (won 14% of 145)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)—16% (won 38% of 228)16% (won 48% of 367)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)—15% (won 62% of 214)23% (won 60% of 509)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)—40% (won 94% of 553)55% (won 96% of 1235)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankferrariChampions2026FlaznorpS-Works
Rams vs. Commanders
opposite sides · consensus Rams
—Rams $33KCommanders $218—
Jets vs. Chiefs
opposite sides · consensus Chiefs
—Chiefs $33KJets $67—
Lions vs. Dolphins
opposite sides · consensus Lions
—Lions $31KDolphins $168—
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Claire Liu vs Alexandra Eala
opposite sides · consensus Claire Liu
—Claire Liu $7.9KAlexandra Eala $6.8K—
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
—Under $9.9KOver $138—
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Crystal Palace FC
—Liverpool FC $529Crystal Palace FC $6.5K—
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $151Yes $2.7K—
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Alexander Shevchenko
opposite sides · consensus Jacob Fearnley
—Jacob Fearnley $174Alexander Shevchenko $406—
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Inaki Montes vs Lorenzo Sonego
same side · consensus Lorenzo Sonego
—Lorenzo Sonego $23KLorenzo Sonego $1.9K—
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Borna Gojo
same side · consensus Borna Gojo
—Borna Gojo $16KBorna Gojo $4.0K—
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
same side · consensus Under
—Under $2.2KUnder $13K—
Hersonissos 3: Arvid Nordquist vs Alexander Vasilev
same side · consensus Arvid Nordquist
—Alexander Vasilev $7.5KAlexander Vasilev $3.4K—
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO5) - IEM Beijing Playoffs
same side · consensus MOUZ
—TheMongolz $647TheMongolz $2—
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group B
same side · consensus KUUSAMO.gg
—Prestige $63Prestige $9—