Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO5) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

27 of 46 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (59%) · MOUZ at 95¢ · $427K held · ends Nov 8

TheMongolz6¢MOUZ94¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 59%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$426.6K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 94.5¢

+18% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

27 of 46 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz6%

MOUZ95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ27 traders

Total Value$391.7K

Total Shares472,885

Combined PnL+$11.2K

TheMongolz19 traders

Total Value$33.7K

Total Shares208,579

Combined PnL$-6.1K

MOUZ — 59%TheMongolz — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	MOUZavg 80¢	$175.0K	$178.4K	+$3.3K	50% 7740-7873 (15613)
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl	MOUZavg 79.9¢	$80.0K	$85.6K	+$5.6K	55% 27-22 (49)
LL lllllllIlll	MOUZavg 80¢	$40.0K	$40.3K	+$250	54% 322-277 (599)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	MOUZavg 80.3¢	$35.0K	$35.1K	+$87.49	55% 247-205 (452)
Neimuking	MOUZavg 79.5¢	$16.6K	$18.3K	+$1.7K	60% 72-48 (120)
CORGIICTR	TheMongolzavg 20.3¢	$16.1K	$15.4K	-$647.21	41% 418-597 (1015)
PU purplegattoCTR	TheMongolzavg 20.6¢	$8.9K	$8.0K	-$891.18	49% 6418-6597 (13015)
AS asuka7	MOUZavg 80.5¢	$5.9K	$6.4K	+$510.57	59% 991-699 (1690)
VI vibing123	MOUZavg 77¢	$5.7K	$5.4K	-$294.44	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
31 319113331313111	MOUZavg 85.5¢	$4.7K	$5.1K	+$339.35	59% 414-284 (698)
CR crmannetjeCTR	TheMongolzavg 21.2¢	$8.4K	$4.5K	$-3.8K	48% 27-29 (56)
SU suleng66	MOUZavg 83.4¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	-$501.04	64% 214-120 (334)
vtcchampion52CTR	TheMongolzavg 8¢	$2.3K	$2.9K	+$620.45	48% 1175-1259 (2434)
LO lonmi2511	MOUZavg 88¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$170.36	55% 1428-1180 (2608)
relativesignificance	MOUZavg 80.9¢	$5.5K	$2.4K	-$167.73	57% 154-118 (272)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	MOUZavg 85.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$58.36	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
OM omnibus-076daa	MOUZavg 83.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$45.99	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
AM ameisgoat11	MOUZavg 80.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$49.59	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
38 38791873984189	MOUZavg 79.7¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$21.18	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
BI BillBenter2026	MOUZavg 80.1¢	$961.42	$1.1K	+$100.58	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	TheMongolzavg 8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$151.11	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 81¢	$471.76	$550.39	+$78.63
└ TheMongolz leg	TheMongolzavg 8¢	$729.47	$499.73	-$229.74
DA darkumbreon88	MOUZavg 80.6¢	$578.91	$642.99	+$64.07	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
pup1CTR	TheMongolzavg 21¢	$630	$615	-$15	45% 2014-2427 (4441)
HO HongweiqianCTR	TheMongolzavg 18.7¢	$382.91	$551.74	+$168.83	50% 294-297 (591)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	MOUZavg 88¢	$510.88	$502.17	-$8.71	54% 1393-1200 (2593)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

MOUZ

Invested

$175,010.76

Value

$178.4K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

50%

7740-7873 (15613)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-Snarl

MOUZ

Invested

$80,021.55

Value

$85.6K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

55%

27-22 (49)

lllllllIlll

MOUZ

Invested

$40,000

Value

$40.3K

PnL

+$250

Record

54%

322-277 (599)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

MOUZ

Invested

$34,993.88

Value

$35.1K

PnL

+$87.49

Record

55%

247-205 (452)

Neimuking

MOUZ

Invested

$16,596.58

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

60%

72-48 (120)

CORGIICTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$16,052.01

Value

$15.4K

PnL

-$647.21

Record

41%

418-597 (1015)

purplegattoCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$8,867.82

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$891.18

Record

49%

6418-6597 (13015)

asuka7

MOUZ

Invested

$5,916.48

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$510.57

Record

59%

991-699 (1690)

vibing123

MOUZ

Invested

$5,668.06

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$294.44

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

319113331313111

MOUZ

Invested

$4,743.45

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$339.35

Record

59%

414-284 (698)

crmannetjeCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$8,355.13

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

48%

27-29 (56)

suleng66

MOUZ

Invested

$4,034.73

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$501.04

Record

64%

214-120 (334)

vtcchampion52CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$2,278.73

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$620.45

Record

48%

1175-1259 (2434)

lonmi2511

MOUZ

Invested

$2,313.47

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$170.36

Record

55%

1428-1180 (2608)

relativesignificance

MOUZ

Invested

$5,547.29

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$167.73

Record

57%

154-118 (272)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

MOUZ

Invested

$1,794.7

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$58.36

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

omnibus-076daa

MOUZ

Invested

$1,395.79

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$45.99

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

ameisgoat11

MOUZ

Invested

$1,171.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$49.59

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

38791873984189

MOUZ

Invested

$1,531.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$21.18

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

BillBenter2026

MOUZ

Invested

$961.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$100.58

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$1,201.23

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$151.11

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Both legs:

MOUZ$471.7681¢+$78.63

TheMongolz$729.478¢-$229.74

darkumbreon88

MOUZ

Invested

$578.91

Value

$642.99

PnL

+$64.07

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

pup1CTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$630

Value

$615

PnL

-$15

Record

45%

2014-2427 (4441)

HongweiqianCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$382.91

Value

$551.74

PnL

+$168.83

Record

50%

294-297 (591)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

MOUZ

Invested

$510.88

Value

$502.17

PnL

-$8.71

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

27 of 46 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.