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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | lava-lava | primm | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (571–700, n=1271) | 43% (392–518, n=910) | 50% (1082–1097, n=2179) | 47% (13369–14864, n=28233) |
| Consensus PnL | $9.4M | $1.3M | $3.6M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #127 | PM monthly #48 | PM monthly #30 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 55% (16 of 29 open) | 40% (43 of 108 open) | 63% (24 of 38 open) | 60% (234 of 389 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | Finance −15 pts, n=14 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 41% of 880 at avg 39¢, ROI +2% | 99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 48% (won 8% of 421) | 5% (won 94% of 51) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 16% (won 38% of 140) | 41% (won 99% of 405) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 15% (won 70% of 131) | 49% (won 99% of 485) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 21% (won 96% of 188) | 5% (won 100% of 46) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
10 on the same side, 24 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | lava-lava | primm | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | No $182K | Yes $9.3K | — | — |
| Spread: Pelicans (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $30K | — | — | Pelicans $125 |
| Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Jazz | Jazz $19K | — | — | Pelicans $135 |
| Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan opposite sides · consensus Central Michigan | — | — | Eastern Michigan $417 | Central Michigan $12K |
| Spread: UMass (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ball State | — | — | Ball State $2.5K | UMass $1.0K |
| Spread: Toledo (-27.5) opposite sides · consensus Toledo | — | — | Toledo $2.2K | Sacramento State $800 |
| Spread: Toledo (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Toledo | — | — | Sacramento State $80 | Toledo $2.9K |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | — | Under $797 | Over $2.1K |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: O/U 53.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | — | Over $2.5K | Under $3 |
| Spread: Toledo (-14.5) opposite sides · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $1.7K | Sacramento State $765 |
| Spread: Central Michigan (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Eastern Michigan | — | — | Eastern Michigan $1.4K | Central Michigan $815 |
| Spread: Toledo (-17.5) opposite sides · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $298 | Sacramento State $1.4K |
| Spread: Celtics (-12.5) opposite sides · consensus Celtics | Celtics $880 | — | — | Bucks $765 |
| Spread: Central Michigan (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Central Michigan | — | — | Eastern Michigan $984 | Central Michigan $583 |
| Spread: Toledo (-26.5) opposite sides · consensus Toledo | — | — | Toledo $1.0K | Sacramento State $463 |
| Spread: UMass (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Ball State | — | — | Ball State $900 | UMass $374 |
| Ball State vs. UMass: O/U 37.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | — | Over $924 | Under $298 |
| Spread: UMass (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Ball State | — | — | Ball State $480 | UMass $457 |
| Spread: Toledo (-30.5) opposite sides · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $243 | Sacramento State $462 |
| Spread: Pelicans (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Pelicans | Jazz $323 | — | — | Pelicans $143 |
| Spread: Toledo (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $142 | Sacramento State $181 |
| Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan: O/U 37.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | — | Under $205 | Over $52 |
| Spread: Eastern Michigan (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Eastern Michigan | — | — | Eastern Michigan $161 | Central Michigan $49 |
| Spread: Central Michigan (-13.5) opposite sides · consensus Eastern Michigan | — | — | Central Michigan $6 | Eastern Michigan $4 |
| Spread: Ball State (-2.5) same side · consensus UMass | — | — | UMass $3.0K | UMass $804 |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: O/U 51.5 same side · consensus Over | — | — | Over $2.6K | Over $179 |
| Spread: Toledo (-13.5) same side · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $2.0K | Toledo $676 |
| Spread: Toledo (-33.5) same side · consensus Sacramento State | — | — | Toledo $1.5K | Toledo $377 |
| Spread: Toledo (-20.5) same side · consensus Toledo | — | — | Toledo $438 | Toledo $773 |
| Spread: Toledo (-23.5) same side · consensus Toledo | — | — | Toledo $176 | Toledo $429 |
| Spread: Toledo (-9.5) same side · consensus Toledo | — | — | Toledo $2 | Toledo $582 |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5) same side · consensus Pacers | Grizzlies $357 | — | — | Grizzlies $123 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election? same side · consensus No | Yes $33 | Yes $354 | — | — |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: O/U 37.5 same side · consensus Over | — | — | Under $182 | Under $11 |