Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankndb1VictorLudorum
Record (consensus markets)45% (547–663, n=1210)66% (877–458, n=1335)54% (4634–3878, n=8512)
Consensus PnL$11.0M$4.1M$154K
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #26PM monthly #166
Sides with the consensus61% (69 of 113 open)70% (26 of 37 open)70% (48 of 69 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—NFL −10 pts, n=132Elections −1 pts, n=1079
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%67% of 4851 at avg 68¢, ROI +1%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 16% of 160)27% (won 2% of 1290)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)20% (won 40% of 253)4% (won 35% of 183)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)24% (won 57% of 310)5% (won 59% of 227)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)43% (won 93% of 544)65% (won 97% of 3151)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankndb1VictorLudorum
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.7KNo $1.4MNo $6.1K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus No
No $258KYes $604KNo $4.0K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $176KYes $321KNo $1.5K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $77KNo $1.9M—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $187KYes $773K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $287KNo $79K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $50KNo $832—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $14K—No $4.9K
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $125K—No $56
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
Yes $28KYes $12K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $3.6KNo $7.1K—
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $125No $3.2K—