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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Erasmus. | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 71% (391–156, n=547) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $516K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #184 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (9 of 12 open) | 72% (74 of 103 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 59% (17 of 29 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Elections −5 pts, n=122 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 74% of 573 at avg 69¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 20% (won 13% of 117) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 8% (won 44% of 43) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 8% (won 65% of 46) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 64% (won 98% of 367) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Erasmus. | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $6.2K | No $184K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $48K | Yes $77K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $51K | — | Ravens $696 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.6K | No $35K | — | — |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $2.1K | — | Ravens $376 |