← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| GollumGekko | sainttroplay | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 68% (1343–637, n=1980) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $233K | $4.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #774 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 79% (120 of 151 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 85% (53 of 62 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 80% of 2114 at avg 75¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 12% of 377) | 0% | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 57% of 80) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 76% of 145) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 72% (won 98% of 1512) | 0% | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | GollumGekko | sainttroplay | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $159 | — | — | No $250K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.9K | — | — | No $34K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.7K | — | — | No $26K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.3K | — | — | Yes $274K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.0K | — | — | Yes $170K |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.5K | — | — | Yes $36K |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $866 | — | — | Yes $30K |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $458 | — | — | Yes $14K |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.4K | — | Yes $68 | — |