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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
GoriIIaRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)72% (242–93, n=335)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$546K$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #920PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus100% (14 of 14 open)53% (70 of 132 open)72% (75 of 104 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicGeopolitics −4 pts, n=95——
Settled positions, side won86% of 387 at avg 86¢, ROI +3%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢3% (won 20% of 10)10% (won 56% of 2534)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢2% (won 43% of 7)22% (won 94% of 5497)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢7% (won 67% of 27)36% (won 99% of 8897)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up89% (won 90% of 343)31% (won 100% of 7736)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketGoriIIaRN1BreakTheBank
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Browns
—Steelers $1.9KBrowns $297K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $42K—Yes $77K
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $12KCardinals $59K
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $13K—Yes $56K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $1.4KCardinals $3.0K
Ravens vs. Bills
same side · consensus Bills
—Bills $28KBills $378K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4.3K—Yes $272K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
same side · consensus Ravens
—Bills $18KBills $51K
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $228Magic $51K
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
same side · consensus Magic
—Magic $161Magic $13K