← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Haradwaith | ndb1 | primm | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 40% (3386–5156, n=8542) | 63% (990–573, n=1563) | 50% (1106–1118, n=2224) | 48% (14128–15613, n=29741) |
| Consensus PnL | -$465K | $3.2M | $3.6M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #273 | PM monthly #104 | PM monthly #46 | PM monthly #29 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (361 of 514 open) | 73% (81 of 111 open) | no open consensus position | 63% (25 of 40 open) |
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| Weakest topic | Weather −6 pts, n=556 | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 39% of 3845 at avg 42¢, ROI −2% | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 53% (won 3% of 2055) | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 5% (won 94% of 51) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 35% of 170) | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 41% (won 99% of 405) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 54% of 178) | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 49% (won 99% of 485) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 38% (won 89% of 1442) | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 5% (won 100% of 46) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
10 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.