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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HomeRunHazard | RN1 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 54% (3464–2954, n=6418) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $3.0M | $13.4M | $3.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #9 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 58% (31 of 53 open) | 67% (22 of 33 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (72 of 99 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 2722 at avg 58¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 95% of 37) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 30% (won 100% of 819) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 48% (won 100% of 1319) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 547) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HomeRunHazard | RN1 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Magic | Celtics $13K | Magic $228 | — | Magic $51K |
| Chiefs vs. Broncos opposite sides · consensus Chiefs | Broncos $6.3K | — | — | Chiefs $465K |
| Spread: Chiefs (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Chiefs | Broncos $6.8K | — | — | Chiefs $152K |
| Celtics vs. Magic opposite sides · consensus Celtics | Celtics $17K | — | — | Magic $24K |
| Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $10K | Under $228 | — | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-9.5) opposite sides · consensus Magic | Magic $9.2K | Celtics $3 | — | — |
| Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Broncos | Broncos $738 | — | — | Chiefs $1.2K |
| Spread: Celtics (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Celtics | Celtics $1.2K | Magic $10 | — | — |
| Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 218.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $338 | Under $213 | — | — |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | — | Magic $13K |