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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Hongweiqian | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 50% (295–299, n=594) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | -$75K | $5.6M | $11.0M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #839 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | no open consensus position | 87% (143 of 164 open) | 68% (48 of 71 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 74% of 428 at avg 54¢, ROI +26% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 26% of 19) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 32% (won 71% of 139) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 53% (won 77% of 226) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 10% (won 84% of 44) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.