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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Istaroth | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 32% (79–167, n=246) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 48% (12778–13831, n=26609) |
| Consensus PnL | -$705K | $10.6M | $3.5M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (33 of 49 open) | 70% (57 of 82 open) | no open consensus position | 62% (94 of 151 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Crypto −4 pts, n=76 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 78% of 287 at avg 77¢, ROI −4% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 12% of 51) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 54% of 13) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 95% of 217) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Istaroth | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Browns $300K | — | Steelers $91 |
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Browns $259K | — | Steelers $3.6K |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $105K | — | Jets $257 |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $35K | — | Ravens $1.2K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | Cardinals $32K | — | Cowboys $21 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $8.6K | — | Buccaneers $1.6K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $2.7K | — | Cowboys $605 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio? same side · consensus No | Yes $11 | Yes $40 | — | — |