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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Kettle | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 43% (119–160, n=279) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $143K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #987 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 88% (7 of 8 open) | 53% (33 of 62 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 73% (72 of 98 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NFL −1 pts, n=60 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 33% of 339 at avg 31¢, ROI +9% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 61% (won 1% of 208) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 28% of 18) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 71% of 21) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 27% (won 98% of 92) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Kettle | RN1 | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $28K | — | — | Yes $37K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $28K | — | — | No $35K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $6.6K | — | — | Yes $272K |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $14K | — | — | No $40K |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | — | Magic $51K |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $21K | — | — | Yes $4.1K |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | — | Magic $13K |