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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| StarMaster | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (1044–978, n=2022) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 48% (12930–14106, n=27036) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $110K | $4.4M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (77 of 105 open) | no open consensus position | 55% (6 of 11 open) | 85% (52 of 61 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Elections −2 pts, n=241 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 49% of 2565 at avg 48¢, ROI +2% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 28% (won 11% of 720) | 0% | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 19% (won 41% of 494) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 31% (won 61% of 804) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 21% (won 89% of 547) | 0% | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | StarMaster | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.7K | — | — | No $202K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $540 | — | — | No $112K |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $11K | — | — | Yes $36K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $720 | — | — | No $26K |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $676 | — | — | Yes $280K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.2K | — | — | Yes $274K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $3.8K | Commanders $188K |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $51 | — | — | Yes $18K |