← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| alex20011 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (2860–2679, n=5539) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $196K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #41 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 96% (27 of 28 open) | 81% (58 of 72 open) | 59% (16 of 27 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Elections ±0 pts, n=209 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 72% of 1358 at avg 71¢, ROI +10% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 17% (won 10% of 230) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 50% of 123) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 64% of 146) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 63% (won 93% of 859) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | alex20011 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No | No $4.5K | Yes $83K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.9K | Yes $45K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $4.6K | Yes $36K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus No | No $4.8K | Yes $1.8K | — | — |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus No | No $3.3K | No $622K | — | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $161K | Commanders $433 | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $32K | Commanders $125 | — |