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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| aviato | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 85% (1871–321, n=2192) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $204K | $4.4M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #808 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 96% (51 of 53 open) | no open consensus position | 54% (14 of 26 open) | 80% (57 of 71 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=423 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 88% of 2584 at avg 86¢, ROI +2% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 8% of 253) | 0% | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 1% (won 29% of 28) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 2% (won 66% of 44) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 87% (won 98% of 2259) | 0% | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | aviato | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $11K | — | — | No $250K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $14K | — | — | Yes $85K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $358 | — | — | No $34K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $143 | — | — | Yes $270K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $34K | — | — | Yes $170K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $3.6K | Commanders $161K |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $125 | Commanders $32K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $220 | — | — | Yes $15K |