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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
beachboy4RN10x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeeaBreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)68% (43–20, n=63)47% (13858–15341, n=29199)41% (1101–1610, n=2711)45% (542–652, n=1194)
Consensus PnL$5.8M$13.4M$2.9M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #24PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #410PM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus100% (2 of 2 open)75% (3 of 4 open)57% (33 of 58 open)90% (147 of 163 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
not computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicNBA −6 pts, n=92———
Settled positions, side won57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%—97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 57% of 2537)—10% (won 82% of 56)
Entries 30–50¢29% (won 56% of 62)22% (won 94% of 5518)—36% (won 98% of 198)
Entries 50–70¢54% (won 51% of 115)36% (won 99% of 8928)—35% (won 99% of 191)
Entries 70¢ and up14% (won 86% of 29)32% (won 100% of 7821)—19% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketbeachboy4RN10x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeeaBreakTheBank
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
——No $3.3KYes $274K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
——No $214No $202K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
——Yes $348Yes $85K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
——Yes $3.5KYes $31K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
——No $815No $30K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $897Yes $22K
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $161Yes $2.6K
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $65—Yes $1.3K—
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $9Yes $230