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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| gaven-willwin | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (17–9, n=26) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12778–13831, n=26609) |
| Consensus PnL | -$135K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #172 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 70% (57 of 82 open) | 61% (87 of 142 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 85% of 27 at avg 80¢, ROI +9% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 4% (won 0% of 1) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 22% (won 50% of 6) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 74% (won 100% of 20) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 8 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | gaven-willwin | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens vs. Bills opposite sides · consensus Bills | — | — | Bills $387K | Ravens $703 |
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | — | Browns $300K | Steelers $51 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $95K | — | No $202K | — |
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | — | Browns $259K | Steelers $3.4K |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | — | Raiders $105K | Jets $255 |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | — | Cardinals $32K | Cowboys $23 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | — | Falcons $8.6K | Buccaneers $1.3K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | — | Cardinals $2.7K | Cowboys $611 |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $35K | Bills $37 |