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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lpgb | BreakTheBank | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | joseph00677 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 27% (187–506, n=693) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 50% (10–10, n=20) |
| Consensus PnL | $26K | $10.6M | $19.0M | $5.3M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #152 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #715 | PM monthly #2 |
| Sides with the consensus | 80% (88 of 110 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | MLB −4 pts, n=42 | — | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 16% of 258 at avg 22¢, ROI −7% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 79% (won 0% of 204) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 12% (won 0% of 2) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 13% of 8) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 6% (won 0% of 1) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 62% of 13) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 65% (won 73% of 11) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 13% (won 91% of 33) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 18% (won 67% of 3) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
40 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.