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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| nigiri99 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (5854–7018, n=12872) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 61% (495–320, n=815) |
| Consensus PnL | -$409K | $10.6M | $5.8M | $4.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #42 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 38% (42 of 110 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 50% (4 of 8 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Esports −2 pts, n=1324 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 45% of 10411 at avg 46¢, ROI +1% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 20% (won 16% of 2120) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 37% (won 42% of 3821) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 57% of 3361) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 11% (won 79% of 1109) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | nigiri99 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $2.0K | Yes $274K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $13K | No $253K | — | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $25K | Yes $172K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.5K | No $30K | — | — |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz opposite sides · consensus Hubert Hurkacz | Lorenzo Musetti $752 | — | — | Hubert Hurkacz $2.1K |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alexander Blockx opposite sides · consensus Daniel Merida Aguilar | Daniel Merida Aguilar $2.1K | — | — | Alexander Blockx $553 |
| Villa Maria: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Gonzalo Villanueva opposite sides · consensus Carlos Maria Zarate | Carlos Maria Zarate $116 | — | — | Gonzalo Villanueva $520 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.8K | No $202K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $18K | No $114K | — | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $11K | Yes $81K | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $2.1K | Yes $85K | — | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $28K | Yes $31K | — | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $13K | No $25K | — | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $8.4K | Yes $29K | — | — |