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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
pauleta23CORGIIBreakTheBankprimm
Record (consensus markets)65% (15655–8312, n=23967)62% (393–245, n=638)45% (526–640, n=1166)50% (941–941, n=1882)
Consensus PnL$243K$4.5M$10.6M$3.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #843PM monthly #68PM monthly #1PM monthly #181
Sides with the consensus63% (25 of 40 open)0% (0 of 4 open)72% (79 of 109 open)63% (22 of 35 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won84% of 10552 at avg 61¢, ROI +25%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢12% (won 32% of 1299)9% (won 92% of 36)10% (won 85% of 53)5% (won 93% of 43)
Entries 30–50¢19% (won 77% of 1979)56% (won 99% of 223)36% (won 98% of 192)41% (won 99% of 366)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 91% of 3086)33% (won 100% of 133)35% (won 99% of 187)49% (won 99% of 433)
Entries 70¢ and up40% (won 97% of 4188)2% (won 100% of 7)20% (won 100% of 107)5% (won 100% of 41)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketpauleta23CORGIIBreakTheBankprimm
Ravens vs. Bills
opposite sides · consensus Bills
Ravens $9—Bills $378KBills $395
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Browns
Steelers $10—Browns $297K—
Browns vs. Steelers
opposite sides · consensus Steelers
Steelers $51—Browns $255K—
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
——Bills $51KRavens $696
Spread: Jets (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raiders
——Raiders $24KJets $284
Spread: Bills (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
——Bills $2.1KRavens $376
Raiders vs. Jets
same side · consensus Raiders
——Raiders $171KRaiders $5.8K
Spread: Raiders (-1.5)
same side · consensus Jets
Raiders $53—Raiders $17K—
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
same side · consensus Cowboys
——Cardinals $3.0KCardinals $1.1K
Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5)
same side · consensus Falcons
Buccaneers $192——Buccaneers $3.0K
Spread: Buccaneers (-9.5)
same side · consensus Buccaneers
Buccaneers $196——Buccaneers $2.3K