← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| smellyEllie | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 44% (551–710, n=1261) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (537–647, n=1184) | 48% (12899–14013, n=26912) |
| Consensus PnL | $102K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #976 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 36% (17 of 47 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 74% (75 of 101 open) | 67% (6 of 9 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=377 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 37% of 1256 at avg 35¢, ROI +4% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 56% (won 7% of 707) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 38% of 125) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 69% of 127) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 24% (won 94% of 297) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | smellyEllie | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2.8K | — | No $202K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $345 | — | Yes $39K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $692 | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | Yes $10 | — | Yes $80K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $15 | — | Yes $49K | — |