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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| xuxuntao | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 77% (91–27, n=118) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | $21K | -$6.6M | $11.0M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #795 | was PM monthly #715 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 2 open) | no open consensus position | 90% (148 of 164 open) | 68% (48 of 71 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 87% of 109 at avg 75¢, ROI +13% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 9% (won 30% of 10) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 100% of 3) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 17% (won 68% of 19) | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 71% (won 99% of 77) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.