Orleans: Sebastian Baez vs Daniil Glinka

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Daniil Glinka (69%) · Daniil Glinka at 77¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 16

Sebastian Baez24¢Daniil Glinka76¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniil Glinka

Consensus Traders

Daniil Glinka 69%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.6K

Combined PnL

$6.0K

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 76.5¢

+48% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniil Glinka at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniil Glinka

11 of 16 top traders (69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sebastian Baez24%

Daniil Glinka77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniil Glinka11 traders

Total Value$26.1K

Total Shares32,233

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Sebastian Baez5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,131

Combined PnL+$34.74

Daniil Glinka — 69%Sebastian Baez — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Daniil Glinkaavg 51.1¢	$10.7K	$12.6K	+$1.9K	54% 1615-1366 (2981)
LI Limousin	Daniil Glinkaavg 53.1¢	$5.1K	$7.1K	+$2.1K	24% 207-650 (857)
TH thirdt1me	Daniil Glinkaavg 51¢	$3.6K	$5.0K	+$1.6K	36% 66-116 (182)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Sebastian Baezavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$35	1% 2-197 (199)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$33.84	48% 802-884 (1686)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.4¢	$717.31	$747.12	+$29.84
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 47¢	$376	$380	+$4
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.2¢	$2.2K	$755.54	-$54.33	48% 223-237 (460)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.2¢	$438.81	$432.34	-$13.03
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 52¢	$332.8	$323.2	-$41.3
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.6¢	$765.27	$738.59	-$26.68	56% 105-82 (187)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.6¢	$418.43	$405.09	-$13.34
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 52¢	$346.84	$333.5	-$13.34
RN1	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.6¢	$449.68	$662.4	+$212.72	58% 3753-2706 (6459)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 52.3¢	$395.68	$451.5	+$62.02	17% 69-334 (403)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 52.3¢	$252.53	$340.64	+$88.11
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 36.3¢	$136.53	$110.87	-$26.08
MA MadridTime	Daniil Glinkaavg 54.4¢	$231.25	$314.72	+$89.53	25% 210-628 (838)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 61.9¢	$304.33	$308.29	+$3.96	56% 3791-2951 (6742)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 61.9¢	$190.34	$235.15	+$44.81
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 36.6¢	$113.98	$73.14	-$40.85
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Sebastian Baezavg 51.9¢	$207.39	$201.89	-$5.49	61% 893-569 (1462)
BA babybells	Daniil Glinkaavg 50.5¢	$105.56	$121.67	+$16.11	17% 73-363 (436)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 62.6¢	$92.69	$87.25	-$5.44	50% 1393-1407 (2800)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 62.6¢	$49.65	$59.89	+$10.24
└ Sebastian Baez leg	Sebastian Baezavg 38.5¢	$43.04	$27.36	-$15.68
TRCMCTR<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 34¢	$62	$68.38	+$6.38	7% 31-415 (446)
PA pauleta23<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 66¢	$57.11	$62.76	+$5.65	21% 108-417 (525)
machinelearned<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 60¢	$43	$43.85	+$0.85	35% 317-601 (918)
VE Venusian<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 73¢	$40.15	$41.53	+$1.38	25% 210-646 (856)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 53¢	$28.62	$41.31	+$12.69	12% 65-461 (526)
LI LightParadox<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 45¢	$26.53	$28.89	+$2.36	25% 209-639 (848)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 53¢	$19.33	$18.5	-$0.83	48% 414-448 (862)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Sebastian Baezavg 52¢	$8.4	$8.08	-$0.32	30% 161-379 (540)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$10,667.12

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

54%

1615-1366 (2981)

Limousin

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$5,074.23

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

24%

207-650 (857)

thirdt1me

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$3,633.74

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

36%

66-116 (182)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$1,715

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$35

Record

2-197 (199)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$1,094.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$33.84

Record

48%

802-884 (1686)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$717.3150.4¢+$29.84

Sebastian Baez$37647¢+$4

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$2,211.06

Value

$755.54

PnL

-$54.33

Record

48%

223-237 (460)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$438.8150.2¢-$13.03

Sebastian Baez$332.852¢-$41.3

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$765.27

Value

$738.59

PnL

-$26.68

Record

56%

105-82 (187)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$418.4350.6¢-$13.34

Sebastian Baez$346.8452¢-$13.34

RN1

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$449.68

Value

$662.4

PnL

+$212.72

Record

58%

3753-2706 (6459)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$395.68

Value

$451.5

PnL

+$62.02

Record

17%

69-334 (403)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$252.5352.3¢+$88.11

Sebastian Baez$136.5336.3¢-$26.08

MadridTime

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$231.25

Value

$314.72

PnL

+$89.53

Record

25%

210-628 (838)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$304.33

Value

$308.29

PnL

+$3.96

Record

56%

3791-2951 (6742)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$190.3461.9¢+$44.81

Sebastian Baez$113.9836.6¢-$40.85

darkumbreon88CTR

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$207.39

Value

$201.89

PnL

-$5.49

Record

61%

893-569 (1462)

babybells

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$105.56

Value

$121.67

PnL

+$16.11

Record

17%

73-363 (436)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$92.69

Value

$87.25

PnL

-$5.44

Record

50%

1393-1407 (2800)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$49.6562.6¢+$10.24

Sebastian Baez$43.0438.5¢-$15.68

TRCMCTR<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$62

Value

$68.38

PnL

+$6.38

Record

31-415 (446)

pauleta23<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$57.11

Value

$62.76

PnL

+$5.65

Record

21%

108-417 (525)

machinelearned<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$43

Value

$43.85

PnL

+$0.85

Record

35%

317-601 (918)

Venusian<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$40.15

Value

$41.53

PnL

+$1.38

Record

25%

210-646 (856)

BillBenter2026<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$28.62

Value

$41.31

PnL

+$12.69

Record

12%

65-461 (526)

LightParadox<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$26.53

Value

$28.89

PnL

+$2.36

Record

25%

209-639 (848)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$19.33

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$0.83

Record

48%

414-448 (862)

sentrioCTR<$100

Sebastian Baez

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$0.32

Record

30%

161-379 (540)

Research grade

NeutralDaniil Glinka at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Daniil Glinka

11 of 16 top traders (69%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniil Glinka wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.