Rolex Paris Masters: Nuno Borges vs Ignacio Buse

28 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Nuno Borges (72%) · Nuno Borges at 100¢ · $157K held · ends Nov 12

Nuno Borges>99¢Ignacio Buse<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nuno Borges

Consensus Traders

Nuno Borges 72%

Total Value

$156.6K

Combined PnL

$8.5K

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

NeutralNuno Borges at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuno Borges

28 of 39 top traders (72%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuno Borges100%

Ignacio Buse0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuno Borges28 traders

Total Value$152.1K

Total Shares155,130

Combined PnL+$12.7K

Ignacio Buse11 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares95,413

Combined PnL$-4.3K

Nuno Borges — 72%Ignacio Buse — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

26 traders

Top 2 hold 27%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Nuno Borges. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 27% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNuno Borges 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpIgnacio Buse 55% · 11

Diverging

ctrNuno Borges 59% · 22

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuno Borges 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Nuno Borges 69% · 36

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Nuno Borgesavg 91.9¢	$18.4K	$17.2K	$-1.3K	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
PA Paul973973	Nuno Borgesavg 99¢	$15.5K	$15.0K	-$493.02	89% 1034-134 (1168)
VeryLucky888	Nuno Borgesavg 60.8¢	$11.4K	$15.0K	+$5.9K	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
65 6512395314597884	Nuno Borgesavg 77.9¢	$12.5K	$13.4K	+$925.57	51% 4763-4628 (9391)
LI LightParadox	Nuno Borgesavg 96.5¢	$13.0K	$13.0K	-$69.29	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Nuno Borgesavg 83.1¢	$17.5K	$11.4K	+$2.1K	42% 7993-11187 (19180)
LI Limousin	Nuno Borgesavg 90.1¢	$10.4K	$11.0K	+$671.56	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
RE redvinny	Nuno Borgesavg 88.9¢	$19.8K	$10.9K	+$696.86	75% 1606-531 (2137)
RN1	Nuno Borgesavg 91.7¢	$8.3K	$8.6K	+$309.62	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Nuno Borgesavg 59.5¢	$4.1K	$6.6K	+$2.5K	55% 3733-3054 (6787)
FL Flaznorp	Nuno Borgesavg 94.7¢	$6.2K	$6.0K	-$202.88	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
VE Venusian	Nuno Borgesavg 90.4¢	$5.4K	$5.8K	+$392.48	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
38 38791873984189	Nuno Borgesavg 85.2¢	$5.7K	$4.0K	+$226	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
tradecraft	Nuno Borgesavg 96.1¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$462.53	51% 6344-6129 (12473)
NS NS13CTR	Ignacio Buseavg 1.5¢	$1.0K	$2.7K	+$1.7K	52% 434-398 (832)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nuno Borgesavg 91.6¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$117.87	52% 14487-13178 (27665)
PL pltrkr111	Nuno Borgesavg 60¢	$1.5K	$2.4K	+$978.65	54% 771-644 (1415)
EU Eulhunter	Nuno Borgesavg 85.5¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$185.7	54% 6274-5339 (11613)
1L 1lovejump	Nuno Borgesavg 91.5¢	$5.8K	$1.6K	+$106.7	53% 782-707 (1489)
RollAwayTheDew	Nuno Borgesavg 57.2¢	$411.09	$688.83	+$25.14	54% 520-445 (965)
NM NM-P	Nuno Borgesavg 58¢	$607.04	$592.83	-$57.43	64% 9921-5527 (15448)
TH thestingsnake	Nuno Borgesavg 92.9¢	$1.4K	$577.11	-$18.45	60% 4436-2970 (7406)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Ignacio Buseavg 4.6¢	$895.05	$553.3	-$540.3	50% 21164-21421 (42585)
GC GC-PCTR	Ignacio Buseavg 41¢	$612.05	$503.4	-$108.65	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Nuno Borgesavg 61¢	$244	$383.6	+$139.6	51% 1899-1850 (3749)

MadridTime

Nuno Borges

Invested

$18,449.84

Value

$17.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

Paul973973

Nuno Borges

Invested

$15,507.62

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$493.02

Record

89%

1034-134 (1168)

VeryLucky888

Nuno Borges

Invested

$11,442.14

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

6512395314597884

Nuno Borges

Invested

$12,503.76

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$925.57

Record

51%

4763-4628 (9391)

LightParadox

Nuno Borges

Invested

$13,043.37

Value

$13.0K

PnL

-$69.29

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

ferrariChampions2026

Nuno Borges

Invested

$17,499.64

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

42%

7993-11187 (19180)

Limousin

Nuno Borges

Invested

$10,360.74

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$671.56

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

redvinny

Nuno Borges

Invested

$19,843.68

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$696.86

Record

75%

1606-531 (2137)

RN1

Nuno Borges

Invested

$8,285.27

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$309.62

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

JAMJAMJAM4

Nuno Borges

Invested

$4,115.73

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

55%

3733-3054 (6787)

Flaznorp

Nuno Borges

Invested

$6,242.54

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$202.88

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

Venusian

Nuno Borges

Invested

$5,375.33

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$392.48

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

38791873984189

Nuno Borges

Invested

$5,685.62

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$226

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

tradecraft

Nuno Borges

Invested

$3,270.38

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$462.53

Record

51%

6344-6129 (12473)

NS13CTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$1,015.82

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

52%

434-398 (832)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nuno Borges

Invested

$2,517.28

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$117.87

Record

52%

14487-13178 (27665)

pltrkr111

Nuno Borges

Invested

$1,469.81

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$978.65

Record

54%

771-644 (1415)

Eulhunter

Nuno Borges

Invested

$1,623.92

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$185.7

Record

54%

6274-5339 (11613)

1lovejump

Nuno Borges

Invested

$5,836.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$106.7

Record

53%

782-707 (1489)

RollAwayTheDew

Nuno Borges

Invested

$411.09

Value

$688.83

PnL

+$25.14

Record

54%

520-445 (965)

NM-P

Nuno Borges

Invested

$607.04

Value

$592.83

PnL

-$57.43

Record

64%

9921-5527 (15448)

thestingsnake

Nuno Borges

Invested

$1,359.26

Value

$577.11

PnL

-$18.45

Record

60%

4436-2970 (7406)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$895.05

Value

$553.3

PnL

-$540.3

Record

50%

21164-21421 (42585)

GC-PCTR

Ignacio Buse

Invested

$612.05

Value

$503.4

PnL

-$108.65

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nuno Borges

Invested

$244

Value

$383.6

PnL

+$139.6

Record

51%

1899-1850 (3749)

Research grade

NeutralNuno Borges at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

Smart Money Signal

Nuno Borges

28 of 39 top traders (72%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

26 traders

Top 2 hold 27%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Nuno Borges. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 27% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNuno Borges 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpIgnacio Buse 55% · 11

Diverging

ctrNuno Borges 59% · 22

Aligned

Hand-pickedNuno Borges 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Nuno Borges 69% · 36

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuno Borges wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.