Lima: Marco Cecchinato vs Francisco Comesana

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Marco Cecchinato (56%) · Marco Cecchinato at 65¢ · $259K held · ends Nov 16

Marco Cecchinato65¢Francisco Comesana35¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marco Cecchinato

Consensus Traders

Marco Cecchinato 56%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$259.3K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 64.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarco Cecchinato at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marco Cecchinato

10 of 18 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marco Cecchinato65%

Francisco Comesana36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marco Cecchinato10 traders

Total Value$150.1K

Total Shares215,035

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Francisco Comesana8 traders

Total Value$71.6K

Total Shares202,372

Combined PnL+$379.12

Marco Cecchinato — 56%Francisco Comesana — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Marco Cecchinatoavg 65.6¢	$71.1K	$69.3K	$-1.8K	54% 1631-1394 (3025)
RO robustmst	Marco Cecchinatoavg 60.8¢	$63.0K	$67.9K	+$4.8K	48% 110-120 (230)
VP Vps1CTR	Francisco Comesanaavg 34.5¢	$62.0K	$62.1K	+$81.33	84% 75-14 (89)
RN1ARB<$100	Marco Cecchinatoavg 64.6¢	$34.4K	$33.5K	-$940.09	58% 3762-2719 (6481)
└ Marco Cecchinato leg	Marco Cecchinatoavg 64.6¢	$23.4K	$23.7K	+$326.07
└ Francisco Comesana leg	Francisco Comesanaavg 39¢	$11.0K	$9.7K	$-1.3K
TH thirdt1me	Marco Cecchinatoavg 64.6¢	$12.0K	$9.4K	-$327.04	39% 78-123 (201)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Francisco Comesanaavg 40¢	$8.0K	$8.3K	+$300	51% 3674-3501 (7175)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Marco Cecchinatoavg 62.5¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$65.72	50% 1414-1418 (2832)
└ Marco Cecchinato leg	Marco Cecchinatoavg 62.5¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$71.18
└ Francisco Comesana leg	Francisco Comesanaavg 42.3¢	$854.81	$717.91	-$136.9
SE sentrio	Marco Cecchinatoavg 65.5¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$24.44	31% 171-389 (560)
VE Venusian	Marco Cecchinatoavg 65.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$13.87	25% 219-662 (881)
38 38791873984189CTR	Francisco Comesanaavg 57.5¢	$481.36	$496.75	+$15.39	48% 898-974 (1872)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Francisco Comesanaavg 42.6¢	$400.74	$367.73	-$33.01	36% 354-629 (983)
└ Francisco Comesana leg	Francisco Comesanaavg 42.6¢	$289.6	$234.6	-$55
└ Marco Cecchinato leg	Marco Cecchinatoavg 54.7¢	$111.14	$133.13	+$21.99
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Francisco Comesanaavg 38.5¢	$390	$359.88	-$30.12	9% 78-777 (855)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Marco Cecchinatoavg 55.9¢	$312.44	$332.44	+$20	25% 220-643 (863)
└ Marco Cecchinato leg	Marco Cecchinatoavg 55.9¢	$232.18	$251.16	+$18.98
└ Francisco Comesana leg	Francisco Comesanaavg 39¢	$80.26	$81.29	+$1.03
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Marco Cecchinatoavg 65.1¢	$317.54	$311.59	-$5.95	49% 66-68 (134)
└ Marco Cecchinato leg	Marco Cecchinatoavg 65.1¢	$211.59	$216.12	+$4.52
└ Francisco Comesana leg	Francisco Comesanaavg 37.2¢	$105.95	$95.48	-$10.47
LI LightParadox	Marco Cecchinatoavg 64.6¢	$265.68	$269.36	+$3.68	25% 221-650 (871)
0xheavy888CTR	Francisco Comesanaavg 57.7¢	$197.82	$201.59	+$3.76	55% 111-90 (201)
BA babybells	Marco Cecchinatoavg 57.1¢	$380.53	$174.06	+$15.08	18% 84-374 (458)
LI Limousin	Marco Cecchinatoavg 38.6¢	$70	$110.26	+$40.26	25% 219-662 (881)
CI cigarettesCTR	Francisco Comesanaavg 44¢	$94.89	$101.57	+$6.68	53% 5388-4864 (10252)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Marco Cecchinatoavg 60.6¢	$52.32	$50.88	+$0.51	18% 78-346 (424)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Francisco Comesanaavg 44¢	$28.27	$29.88	+$1.61	46% 78-90 (168)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Francisco Comesanaavg 58¢	$27.26	$27.73	+$0.47	49% 428-453 (881)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Marco Cecchinatoavg 64.5¢	$8.38	$8.39	+$0	15% 84-464 (548)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$71,086.49

Value

$69.3K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

54%

1631-1394 (3025)

robustmst

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$63,007.61

Value

$67.9K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

48%

110-120 (230)

Vps1CTR

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$62,017.21

Value

$62.1K

PnL

+$81.33

Record

84%

75-14 (89)

RN1ARB<$100

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$34,438.63

Value

$33.5K

PnL

-$940.09

Record

58%

3762-2719 (6481)

Both legs:

Marco Cecchinato$23,423.2264.6¢+$326.07

Francisco Comesana$11,015.4139¢$-1.3K

thirdt1me

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$11,958.25

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$327.04

Record

39%

78-123 (201)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$8,000

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$300

Record

51%

3674-3501 (7175)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$3,054.01

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$65.72

Record

50%

1414-1418 (2832)

Both legs:

Marco Cecchinato$2,199.262.5¢+$71.18

Francisco Comesana$854.8142.3¢-$136.9

sentrio

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$1,636.21

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$24.44

Record

31%

171-389 (560)

Venusian

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$1,261.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$13.87

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

38791873984189CTR

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$481.36

Value

$496.75

PnL

+$15.39

Record

48%

898-974 (1872)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$400.74

Value

$367.73

PnL

-$33.01

Record

36%

354-629 (983)

Both legs:

Francisco Comesana$289.642.6¢-$55

Marco Cecchinato$111.1454.7¢+$21.99

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$390

Value

$359.88

PnL

-$30.12

Record

78-777 (855)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$312.44

Value

$332.44

PnL

+$20

Record

25%

220-643 (863)

Both legs:

Marco Cecchinato$232.1855.9¢+$18.98

Francisco Comesana$80.2639¢+$1.03

EulhunterARB<$100

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$317.54

Value

$311.59

PnL

-$5.95

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

Both legs:

Marco Cecchinato$211.5965.1¢+$4.52

Francisco Comesana$105.9537.2¢-$10.47

LightParadox

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$265.68

Value

$269.36

PnL

+$3.68

Record

25%

221-650 (871)

0xheavy888CTR

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$197.82

Value

$201.59

PnL

+$3.76

Record

55%

111-90 (201)

babybells

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$380.53

Value

$174.06

PnL

+$15.08

Record

18%

84-374 (458)

Limousin

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$70

Value

$110.26

PnL

+$40.26

Record

25%

219-662 (881)

cigarettesCTR

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$94.89

Value

$101.57

PnL

+$6.68

Record

53%

5388-4864 (10252)

thestingsnake<$100

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$52.32

Value

$50.88

PnL

+$0.51

Record

18%

78-346 (424)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$28.27

Value

$29.88

PnL

+$1.61

Record

46%

78-90 (168)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Francisco Comesana

Invested

$27.26

Value

$27.73

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

428-453 (881)

BillBenter2026<$100

Marco Cecchinato

Invested

$8.38

Value

$8.39

PnL

+$0

Record

15%

84-464 (548)

Research grade

NeutralMarco Cecchinato at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Marco Cecchinato

10 of 18 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marco Cecchinato wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.