Brisbane 3: Jake Delaney vs Juncheng Shang

18 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Juncheng Shang (82%) · Juncheng Shang at 100¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 16

Jake Delaney<1¢Juncheng Shang>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juncheng Shang

Consensus Traders

Juncheng Shang 82%

Total Value

$55.5K

Combined PnL

$11.7K

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuncheng Shang at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

18 of 22 top traders (82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jake Delaney0%

Juncheng Shang100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juncheng Shang18 traders

Total Value$55.0K

Total Shares55,243

Combined PnL+$13.5K

Jake Delaney4 traders

Total Value$449.95

Total Shares7,951

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Juncheng Shang — 82%Jake Delaney — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedJuncheng Shang 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 81% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Juncheng Shangavg 70.3¢	$12.9K	$18.0K	+$5.1K	54% 1508-1259 (2767)
RN1	Juncheng Shangavg 68.1¢	$8.7K	$11.5K	+$2.8K	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
VE Venusian	Juncheng Shangavg 71.2¢	$4.7K	$6.7K	+$1.9K	24% 184-596 (780)
LI Limousin	Juncheng Shangavg 76.4¢	$4.6K	$6.0K	+$1.4K	23% 174-599 (773)
LI LightParadox	Juncheng Shangavg 66.8¢	$2.1K	$3.1K	+$1.0K	22% 160-555 (715)
OJ ojg	Juncheng Shangavg 98.5¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$12.37	32% 64-134 (198)
TH thestingsnake	Juncheng Shangavg 81.4¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$449.31	14% 51-322 (373)
FL Flaznorp	Juncheng Shangavg 81¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$105.32	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
TRCM	Juncheng Shangavg 66¢	$793.39	$1.2K	+$396.69	5% 22-408 (430)
MA MadridTime	Juncheng Shangavg 71.3¢	$408.17	$551.44	+$143.26	21% 152-556 (708)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Juncheng Shangavg 69.6¢	$517.87	$498.07	-$19.8	56% 3745-2913 (6658)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jake Delaneyavg 25.9¢	$1.2K	$430.35	-$386.38	48% 603-645 (1248)
EU Eulhunter	Juncheng Shangavg 71.9¢	$252.59	$345.7	+$93.11	55% 44-36 (80)
OM omnibus-076daa	Juncheng Shangavg 69.1¢	$229.88	$221.87	-$8.01	32% 132-277 (409)
machinelearned	Juncheng Shangavg 67¢	$148.14	$155.08	+$6.94	27% 213-562 (775)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 86.5¢	$48.42	$55.44	+$7.02	10% 49-438 (487)
0xheavy888<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 83¢	$43.65	$52.06	+$8.41	58% 46-33 (79)
VeryLucky888<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 82¢	$41	$49.5	+$8.5	48% 145-158 (303)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Jake Delaneyavg 34¢	$510	$15	-$495	6% 6-91 (97)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.95	+$0.85	16% 81-439 (520)
BA babybellsCTR	Jake Delaneyavg 31.5¢	$113.17	$2.64	-$78.23	13% 53-343 (396)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Jake Delaneyavg 22.4¢	$1.0K	$1.96	-$809.62	30% 46-106 (152)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$12,861.95

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

54%

1508-1259 (2767)

RN1

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$8,670.31

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Venusian

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$4,746.36

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

24%

184-596 (780)

Limousin

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$4,593.24

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

23%

174-599 (773)

LightParadox

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$2,124.1

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

22%

160-555 (715)

ojg

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$2,709.03

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$12.37

Record

32%

64-134 (198)

thestingsnake

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$2,197.77

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$449.31

Record

14%

51-322 (373)

Flaznorp

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$1,217.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$105.32

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

TRCM

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$793.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$396.69

Record

22-408 (430)

MadridTime

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$408.17

Value

$551.44

PnL

+$143.26

Record

21%

152-556 (708)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$517.87

Value

$498.07

PnL

-$19.8

Record

56%

3745-2913 (6658)

38791873984189CTR

Jake Delaney

Invested

$1,238.88

Value

$430.35

PnL

-$386.38

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Eulhunter

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$252.59

Value

$345.7

PnL

+$93.11

Record

55%

44-36 (80)

omnibus-076daa

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$229.88

Value

$221.87

PnL

-$8.01

Record

32%

132-277 (409)

machinelearned

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$148.14

Value

$155.08

PnL

+$6.94

Record

27%

213-562 (775)

BillBenter2026<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$48.42

Value

$55.44

PnL

+$7.02

Record

10%

49-438 (487)

0xheavy888<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$43.65

Value

$52.06

PnL

+$8.41

Record

58%

46-33 (79)

VeryLucky888<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$41

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$8.5

Record

48%

145-158 (303)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Jake Delaney

Invested

$510

Value

$15

PnL

-$495

Record

6-91 (97)

ameisgoat11<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.85

Record

16%

81-439 (520)

babybellsCTR

Jake Delaney

Invested

$113.17

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$78.23

Record

13%

53-343 (396)

thirdt1meCTR

Jake Delaney

Invested

$1,035.93

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$809.62

Record

30%

46-106 (152)

Research grade

NeutralJuncheng Shang at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

18 of 22 top traders (82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedJuncheng Shang 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 81% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juncheng Shang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.