Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Liam Draxl, while the market favors Dylan Dietrich (100%). 7 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sioux Falls: Dylan Dietrich vs Liam Draxl
7 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Liam Draxl (41%) · Liam Draxl at 0.1¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Liam Draxl
17
Liam Draxl 41%
$16.8K
$-2.0K
47.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidLiam Draxl at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 17 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors Dylan Dietrich 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Liam Draxlavg 55.4¢ | $5.6K | $5.2K | -$399.78 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Liam Draxlavg 39.1¢ | $6.7K | $5.1K | $-1.6K | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239 | Dylan Dietrichavg 40.3¢ | $3.5K | $3.3K | -$157.55 | 38% 506-818 (1324) |
SE sentrio | Dylan Dietrichavg 89¢ | $742.5 | $704.91 | -$37.59 | 50% 24946-24626 (49572) |
1L 1lovejump | Dylan Dietrichavg 76.8¢ | $1.1K | $660.29 | -$63.4 | 53% 674-597 (1271) |
TH thestingsnake | Dylan Dietrichavg 64.7¢ | $439.89 | $513.96 | +$188.89 | 60% 4110-2768 (6878) |
SC SchruteBucks | Dylan Dietrichavg 57.4¢ | $795.82 | $437.1 | +$55.86 | 56% 1868-1450 (3318) |
 VeryLucky888 | Dylan Dietrichavg 70¢ | $486.55 | $429.46 | +$5.14 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Dylan Dietrichavg 64.3¢ | $306.36 | $304.92 | -$1.44 | 52% 13935-12713 (26648) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Dylan Dietrichavg 70¢ | $35.87 | $35.61 | -$0.26 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Liam Draxlavg 29¢ | $23.2 | $24.4 | +$1.2 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
 poshposh<$100 | Dylan Dietrichavg 61¢ | $8.97 | $14.69 | +$5.73 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100 | Liam Draxlavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $5.85 | -$0.05 | 51% 1532-1483 (3015) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Dylan Dietrichavg 34¢ | $1.19 | $3.5 | +$2.31 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Liam Draxlavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.18 | +$0.13 | 55% 3962-3193 (7155) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Liam Draxlavg 10.9¢ | $11.58 | $0.05 | -$11.53 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Liam Draxlavg 15¢ | $8.3 | $0.01 | +$1.7 | 85% 5899-1010 (6909) |
RN1CTRInvested
$5,572.92
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$399.78
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$6,682.39
Value
$5.1K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$3,500
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$157.55
Record
38%
506-818 (1324)
Invested
$742.5
Value
$704.91
PnL
-$37.59
Record
50%
24946-24626 (49572)
Invested
$1,135.91
Value
$660.29
PnL
-$63.4
Record
53%
674-597 (1271)
Invested
$439.89
Value
$513.96
PnL
+$188.89
Record
60%
4110-2768 (6878)
Invested
$795.82
Value
$437.1
PnL
+$55.86
Record
56%
1868-1450 (3318)
VeryLucky888Invested
$486.55
Value
$429.46
PnL
+$5.14
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$306.36
Value
$304.92
PnL
-$1.44
Record
52%
13935-12713 (26648)
Invested
$35.87
Value
$35.61
PnL
-$0.26
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
Invested
$23.2
Value
$24.4
PnL
+$1.2
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
poshposh<$100Invested
$8.97
Value
$14.69
PnL
+$5.73
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$5.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
51%
1532-1483 (3015)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$2.31
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.18
PnL
+$0.13
Record
55%
3962-3193 (7155)
Invested
$11.58
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$11.53
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$8.3
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$1.7
Record
85%
5899-1010 (6909)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
CTRLiam Draxl — $5.2K
UpTheBlues
CTRLiam Draxl — $5.1K
0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239
Dylan Dietrich — $3.3K
sentrio
Dylan Dietrich — $704.91
1lovejump
Dylan Dietrich — $660.29
thestingsnake
Dylan Dietrich — $513.96
SchruteBucks
Dylan Dietrich — $437.1
VeryLucky888
Dylan Dietrich — $429.46
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Dylan Dietrich — $304.92
omnibus-076daa
Dylan Dietrich — $35.61