Brisbane 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Akira Santillan

5 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Cruz Hewitt (23%) · Cruz Hewitt at 61¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 18

Cruz Hewitt61¢Akira Santillan39¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cruz Hewitt

Consensus Traders

Cruz Hewitt 23%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

-$25.56

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 60.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCruz Hewitt at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cruz Hewitt

5 of 22 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cruz Hewitt61%

Akira Santillan40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cruz Hewitt5 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares19,634

Combined PnL+$195.93

Akira Santillan17 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares20,290

Combined PnL-$221.49

Cruz Hewitt — 23%Akira Santillan — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Cruz Hewitt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperCruz Hewitt 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAkira Santillan 88% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedAkira Santillan 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Akira Santillan 80% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
isco22	Cruz Hewittavg 60.4¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	+$11.7	— 1-14 (15)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Cruz Hewittavg 58.5¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$103.72	33% 14-28 (42)
RN1CTR	Akira Santillanavg 39.7¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$15.57	57% 4429-3409 (7838)
FL Flaznorp	Cruz Hewittavg 57.2¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$53.34	51% 2468-2344 (4812)
0xheavy888CTR	Akira Santillanavg 41.3¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	-$33.29	55% 262-216 (478)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Akira Santillanavg 41¢	$819.65	$799.66	-$19.99	59% 458-322 (780)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Akira Santillanavg 41.2¢	$639.48	$621.23	-$18.25	38% 72-117 (189)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Akira Santillanavg 42¢	$603.62	$574.88	-$28.74	61% 952-605 (1557)
nigiri99CTR	Akira Santillanavg 42.5¢	$616.9	$573.15	-$43.75	51% 329-314 (643)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Cruz Hewittavg 56¢	$375.2	$402	+$26.8	33% 10-20 (30)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Akira Santillanavg 43.8¢	$410.6	$375.2	-$35.4	6% 13-208 (221)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Akira Santillanavg 43¢	$344	$320	-$24	18% 194-888 (1082)
38 38791873984189CTR	Akira Santillanavg 39.3¢	$592.6	$220.37	+$22.36	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 57¢	$205.35	$214.21	+$8.86	43% 65-86 (151)
└ Cruz Hewitt leg	Cruz Hewittavg 57¢	$133.2	$140.21	+$7.01
└ Akira Santillan leg	Akira Santillanavg 39¢	$72.15	$74	+$1.85
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 41.5¢	$99.81	$96.41	-$3.41	52% 180-163 (343)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 47.9¢	$85.74	$71.56	-$14.17	32% 524-1101 (1625)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 44.3¢	$74.86	$70.18	-$4.68	41% 525-744 (1269)
FY fydi<$100	Cruz Hewittavg 60¢	$45	$45.38	+$0.38	— 3-3 (6)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 41¢	$40.59	$39.6	-$0.99	28% 49-124 (173)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 40¢	$24.4	$24.1	-$0.3	50% 3509-3482 (6991)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 43¢	$10	$9.3	-$0.7	50% 86-87 (173)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 41.7¢	$8.35	$7.9	-$0.45	38% 464-772 (1236)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Akira Santillanavg 43¢	$1.9	$1.75	-$0.15	47% 1458-1629 (3087)

isco22

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$5,815.39

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$11.7

Record

—

1-14 (15)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$3,989

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$103.72

Record

33%

14-28 (42)

RN1CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$2,929.53

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$15.57

Record

57%

4429-3409 (7838)

Flaznorp

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$1,641.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$53.34

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

0xheavy888CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$2,077.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$33.29

Record

55%

262-216 (478)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$819.65

Value

$799.66

PnL

-$19.99

Record

59%

458-322 (780)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$639.48

Value

$621.23

PnL

-$18.25

Record

38%

72-117 (189)

darkumbreon88CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$603.62

Value

$574.88

PnL

-$28.74

Record

61%

952-605 (1557)

nigiri99CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$616.9

Value

$573.15

PnL

-$43.75

Record

51%

329-314 (643)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$375.2

Value

$402

PnL

+$26.8

Record

33%

10-20 (30)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$410.6

Value

$375.2

PnL

-$35.4

Record

13-208 (221)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$344

Value

$320

PnL

-$24

Record

18%

194-888 (1082)

38791873984189CTR

Akira Santillan

Invested

$592.6

Value

$220.37

PnL

+$22.36

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

efntrickARB<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$205.35

Value

$214.21

PnL

+$8.86

Record

43%

65-86 (151)

Both legs:

Cruz Hewitt$133.257¢+$7.01

Akira Santillan$72.1539¢+$1.85

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$99.81

Value

$96.41

PnL

-$3.41

Record

52%

180-163 (343)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$85.74

Value

$71.56

PnL

-$14.17

Record

32%

524-1101 (1625)

sentrioCTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$74.86

Value

$70.18

PnL

-$4.68

Record

41%

525-744 (1269)

fydi<$100

Cruz Hewitt

Invested

$45

Value

$45.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

—

3-3 (6)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$40.59

Value

$39.6

PnL

-$0.99

Record

28%

49-124 (173)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$24.4

Value

$24.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

3509-3482 (6991)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$10

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$0.7

Record

50%

86-87 (173)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$8.35

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

464-772 (1236)

suntoriCTR<$100

Akira Santillan

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

Research grade

NeutralCruz Hewitt at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cruz Hewitt

5 of 22 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Cruz Hewitt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperCruz Hewitt 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAkira Santillan 88% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedAkira Santillan 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Akira Santillan 80% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cruz Hewitt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.