Lima: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Filip Misolic

16 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Misolic (80%) · Filip Misolic at 81¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 18

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo20¢Filip Misolic80¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Misolic

Consensus Traders

Filip Misolic 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.3K

Combined PnL

$3.5K

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 80.5¢

+13% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

16 of 20 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo20%

Filip Misolic81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Filip Misolic16 traders

Total Value$39.8K

Total Shares45,135

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo4 traders

Total Value$810.98

Total Shares4,047

Combined PnL-$596.33

Filip Misolic — 80%Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Filip Misolic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperFilip Misolic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Misolic 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Woaifacai	Filip Misolicavg 63.1¢	$11.1K	$14.7K	+$3.6K	63% 225-135 (360)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Filip Misolicavg 85.9¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	-$4.51	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
65 6512395314597884	Filip Misolicavg 69¢	$5.6K	$6.0K	+$439.87	50% 3289-3245 (6534)
RN1	Filip Misolicavg 70.9¢	$6.1K	$5.8K	-$297.62	57% 4029-3044 (7073)
LI Limousin	Filip Misolicavg 79¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$186.13	30% 373-868 (1241)
VE Venusian	Filip Misolicavg 84¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$77.52	31% 380-865 (1245)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 70.2¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$207.65	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 70.2¢	$953.51	$1.1K	+$112.87
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 35.4¢	$817.32	$496.8	-$320.52
38 38791873984189	Filip Misolicavg 72.8¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$160.94	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
tradecraftCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 35¢	$702.85	$412.05	-$290.8	19% 147-614 (761)
TRCMCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 35¢	$700	$390	-$310	10% 50-429 (479)
TH thestingsnake	Filip Misolicavg 83.1¢	$442.95	$316.81	-$70.31	24% 120-370 (490)
machinelearned	Filip Misolicavg 58.2¢	$218.25	$294.38	+$76.13	39% 506-777 (1283)
BA babybells	Filip Misolicavg 75.1¢	$159.29	$171.63	+$12.34	23% 120-406 (526)
VeryLucky888	Filip Misolicavg 60¢	$120.65	$154.83	+$34.18	51% 446-422 (868)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Filip Misolicavg 79.2¢	$142.37	$146.08	+$3.72	56% 3843-3017 (6860)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 67¢	$440.75	$138.72	+$62.83	42% 110-152 (262)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 67¢	$78	$94.3	+$57.16
└ Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo leg	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 16.6¢	$38.75	$44.41	+$5.66
EU Eulhunter<$100	Filip Misolicavg 78¢	$60.36	$65.38	+$5.01	49% 98-102 (200)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Filip Misolicavg 73.7¢	$47.9	$51.68	+$3.78	22% 136-488 (624)
PA Pan9X<$100	Filip Misolicavg 59¢	$18.29	$23.87	+$5.58	48% 662-711 (1373)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 35¢	$315	$6.89	+$5.51	22% 140-491 (631)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Filip Misolicavg 60¢	$3	$3.93	+$0.93	32% 285-613 (898)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdoavg 38¢	$3.06	$2.03	-$1.03	45% 114-137 (251)

Woaifacai

Filip Misolic

Invested

$11,146.06

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

63%

225-135 (360)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Filip Misolic

Invested

$6,586.62

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$4.51

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

6512395314597884

Filip Misolic

Invested

$5,563.45

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$439.87

Record

50%

3289-3245 (6534)

RN1

Filip Misolic

Invested

$6,145.56

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$297.62

Record

57%

4029-3044 (7073)

Limousin

Filip Misolic

Invested

$2,280.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$186.13

Record

30%

373-868 (1241)

Venusian

Filip Misolic

Invested

$1,860.43

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$77.52

Record

31%

380-865 (1245)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$1,770.83

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$207.65

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$953.5170.2¢+$112.87

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$817.3235.4¢-$320.52

38791873984189

Filip Misolic

Invested

$1,012.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$160.94

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

tradecraftCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$702.85

Value

$412.05

PnL

-$290.8

Record

19%

147-614 (761)

TRCMCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$700

Value

$390

PnL

-$310

Record

10%

50-429 (479)

thestingsnake

Filip Misolic

Invested

$442.95

Value

$316.81

PnL

-$70.31

Record

24%

120-370 (490)

machinelearned

Filip Misolic

Invested

$218.25

Value

$294.38

PnL

+$76.13

Record

39%

506-777 (1283)

babybells

Filip Misolic

Invested

$159.29

Value

$171.63

PnL

+$12.34

Record

23%

120-406 (526)

VeryLucky888

Filip Misolic

Invested

$120.65

Value

$154.83

PnL

+$34.18

Record

51%

446-422 (868)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Filip Misolic

Invested

$142.37

Value

$146.08

PnL

+$3.72

Record

56%

3843-3017 (6860)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$440.75

Value

$138.72

PnL

+$62.83

Record

42%

110-152 (262)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$7867¢+$57.16

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$38.7516.6¢+$5.66

Eulhunter<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$60.36

Value

$65.38

PnL

+$5.01

Record

49%

98-102 (200)

BillBenter2026<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$47.9

Value

$51.68

PnL

+$3.78

Record

22%

136-488 (624)

Pan9X<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$18.29

Value

$23.87

PnL

+$5.58

Record

48%

662-711 (1373)

SchruteBucksCTR

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$315

Value

$6.89

PnL

+$5.51

Record

22%

140-491 (631)

ameisgoat11<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

Value

$3.93

PnL

+$0.93

Record

32%

285-613 (898)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Invested

$3.06

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$1.03

Record

45%

114-137 (251)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

16 of 20 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Filip Misolic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Misolic 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperFilip Misolic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedFilip Misolic 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Misolic 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Misolic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.