Knoxville: Orel Kimhi vs Filip Jeff Planinsek

16 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Jeff Planinsek (73%) · Filip Jeff Planinsek at 95¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 17

Orel Kimhi5¢Filip Jeff Planinsek95¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Consensus Traders

Filip Jeff Planinsek 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.6K

Combined PnL

$773.59

Smart Money Entry

82.6¢ → 94.8¢

+15% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Jeff Planinsek at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Jeff Planinsek

16 of 22 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Orel Kimhi5%

Filip Jeff Planinsek95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Filip Jeff Planinsek16 traders

Total Value$37.7K

Total Shares40,699

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Orel Kimhi6 traders

Total Value$671.39

Total Shares22,150

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Filip Jeff Planinsek — 73%Orel Kimhi — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Filip Jeff Planinsek. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Jeff Planinsek 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFilip Jeff Planinsek 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedFilip Jeff Planinsek 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Jeff Planinsek 73% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 83.3¢	$9.1K	$10.1K	+$1.0K	25% 213-642 (855)
VE Venusian	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 83¢	$9.0K	$9.9K	+$842	25% 212-653 (865)
RN1	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 88¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$276.87	58% 3756-2709 (6465)
LI Limousin	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 84.7¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$311.04	25% 212-653 (865)
MA MadridTime	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 79.1¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$458.86	25% 214-632 (846)
TH thestingsnake	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 77.6¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$560.81	17% 71-337 (408)
tradecraft	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 79.5¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$351.72	16% 105-569 (674)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Orel Kimhiavg 21¢	$1.8K	$778.63	-$748.65	48% 840-912 (1752)
└ Orel Kimhi leg	Orel Kimhiavg 21¢	$1.1K	$400.21	-$827.9
└ Filip Jeff Planinsek leg	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 73.2¢	$299.17	$378.42	+$79.25
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 86.1¢	$421.22	$406.56	-$14.65	56% 3797-2956 (6753)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 81.4¢	$524.44	$402.43	+$8.23	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
└ Filip Jeff Planinsek leg	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 81.4¢	$268.91	$303.92	+$45.63
└ Orel Kimhi leg	Orel Kimhiavg 11¢	$135.92	$98.51	-$37.41
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Orel Kimhiavg 15.5¢	$2.0K	$363.86	$-1.6K	54% 1624-1378 (3002)
TRCM	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 74.2¢	$177.39	$220.14	+$42.75	8% 34-415 (449)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Orel Kimhiavg 20.1¢	$1.5K	$215.39	$-1.3K	37% 68-118 (186)
VeryLucky888	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 72.8¢	$160.37	$196.37	+$42.74	49% 231-238 (469)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 66¢	$66	$92.05	+$26.05	52% 61-57 (118)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 64.1¢	$53.5	$77.6	+$24.1	37% 189-328 (517)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 81.1¢	$48.65	$55.23	+$6.58	13% 71-461 (532)
PA Pan9X<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 73.4¢	$39.64	$50.22	+$10.58	48% 420-450 (870)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Orel Kimhiavg 27¢	$140	$41.22	-$98.78	23% 94-307 (401)
PA pauleta23<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 80.9¢	$28.26	$32.17	+$3.91	22% 117-422 (539)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Orel Kimhiavg 6.9¢	$19.3	$23.48	+$4.18	37% 86-144 (230)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100	Orel Kimhiavg 24¢	$50.4	$14.7	-$35.7	1% 2-198 (200)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Orel Kimhiavg 18.6¢	$84.5	$12.74	-$71.76	17% 77-365 (442)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 75¢	$3.75	$4.65	+$0.9	24% 155-504 (659)

LightParadox

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$9,131.74

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

Venusian

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$9,031.64

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$842

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

RN1

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$3,913.49

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$276.87

Record

58%

3756-2709 (6465)

Limousin

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$3,358.63

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$311.04

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

MadridTime

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$2,734.27

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$458.86

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

thestingsnake

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$2,428.66

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$560.81

Record

17%

71-337 (408)

tradecraft

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$2,299.54

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$351.72

Record

16%

105-569 (674)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Orel Kimhi

Invested

$1,751.82

Value

$778.63

PnL

-$748.65

Record

48%

840-912 (1752)

Both legs:

Orel Kimhi$1,125.5921¢-$827.9

Filip Jeff Planinsek$299.1773.2¢+$79.25

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$421.22

Value

$406.56

PnL

-$14.65

Record

56%

3797-2956 (6753)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$524.44

Value

$402.43

PnL

+$8.23

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

Both legs:

Filip Jeff Planinsek$268.9181.4¢+$45.63

Orel Kimhi$135.9211¢-$37.41

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Orel Kimhi

Invested

$2,010.07

Value

$363.86

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

1624-1378 (3002)

TRCM

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$177.39

Value

$220.14

PnL

+$42.75

Record

34-415 (449)

thirdt1meCTR

Orel Kimhi

Invested

$1,545.83

Value

$215.39

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

37%

68-118 (186)

VeryLucky888

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$160.37

Value

$196.37

PnL

+$42.74

Record

49%

231-238 (469)

Eulhunter<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$66

Value

$92.05

PnL

+$26.05

Record

52%

61-57 (118)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$53.5

Value

$77.6

PnL

+$24.1

Record

37%

189-328 (517)

BillBenter2026<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$48.65

Value

$55.23

PnL

+$6.58

Record

13%

71-461 (532)

Pan9X<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$39.64

Value

$50.22

PnL

+$10.58

Record

48%

420-450 (870)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Orel Kimhi

Invested

$140

Value

$41.22

PnL

-$98.78

Record

23%

94-307 (401)

pauleta23<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$28.26

Value

$32.17

PnL

+$3.91

Record

22%

117-422 (539)

ojgCTR<$100

Orel Kimhi

Invested

$19.3

Value

$23.48

PnL

+$4.18

Record

37%

86-144 (230)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100

Orel Kimhi

Invested

$50.4

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$35.7

Record

2-198 (200)

babybellsCTR<$100

Orel Kimhi

Invested

$84.5

Value

$12.74

PnL

-$71.76

Record

17%

77-365 (442)

ameisgoat11<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0.9

Record

24%

155-504 (659)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Jeff Planinsek at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Jeff Planinsek

16 of 22 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Filip Jeff Planinsek. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFilip Jeff Planinsek 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFilip Jeff Planinsek 75% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedFilip Jeff Planinsek 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Filip Jeff Planinsek 73% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Jeff Planinsek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.