Monastir: Moise Kouame vs Robert Strombachs

15 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Moise Kouame (68%) · Moise Kouame at 93¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 16

Moise Kouame93¢Robert Strombachs7¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Moise Kouame

Consensus Traders

Moise Kouame 68%

Total Value

$24.7K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 92.5¢

+30% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralMoise Kouame at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Moise Kouame

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Moise Kouame93%

Robert Strombachs8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Moise Kouame15 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares31,323

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Robert Strombachs7 traders

Total Value$342.24

Total Shares1,674

Combined PnL-$1.27

Moise Kouame — 68%Robert Strombachs — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Moise Kouame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRobert Strombachs 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrMoise Kouame 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoise Kouame 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Moise Kouame 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Moise Kouameavg 70¢	$14.0K	$14.9K	+$900	—
alpheclabs2	Moise Kouameavg 69¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$344.69	—
38 38791873984189	Moise Kouameavg 71.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$280.45	—
FL Flaznorp	Moise Kouameavg 87.4¢	$895.69	$944.25	+$48.56	—
LI Limousin	Moise Kouameavg 87.9¢	$834.94	$764.87	-$70.07	—
LI LightParadox	Moise Kouameavg 79.4¢	$516.43	$595.47	+$79.04	—
MA MadridTime	Moise Kouameavg 71.1¢	$405.06	$520.97	+$115.91	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Moise Kouameavg 72.4¢	$182.55	$218.42	+$35.87	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Moise Kouameavg 75.5¢	$127.39	$134.64	+$7.25	—
VeryLucky888CTR	Robert Strombachsavg 19¢	$119.46	$113.12	+$28.16	—
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100	Robert Strombachsavg 18¢	$82.08	$88.92	+$6.84	49% 591-613 (1204)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Moise Kouameavg 70¢	$75.6	$80.46	+$4.86	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Robert Strombachsavg 16.7¢	$57.74	$79.25	+$21.51	—
machinelearned<$100	Moise Kouameavg 71¢	$33.3	$37.65	+$4.35	—
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Robert Strombachsavg 24.6¢	$96.25	$37.11	-$59.14	—
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Moise Kouameavg 85.1¢	$23.16	$24.62	+$1.46	—
SE sentrio<$100	Moise Kouameavg 81.2¢	$26.92	$21.67	-$0.18	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Robert Strombachsavg 19¢	$20.33	$20.87	+$0.54	45% 14909-18248 (33157)
0xheavy888<$100	Moise Kouameavg 79¢	$8.7	$8.86	+$0.17	56% 9043-7128 (16171)
EF efntrick<$100	Moise Kouameavg 81¢	$3.3	$3.28	-$0.02	49% 3741-3962 (7703)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Robert Strombachsavg 6¢	$1.2	$1.7	+$0.5	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Robert Strombachsavg 19¢	$0.95	$1.28	+$0.32	—

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Moise Kouame

Invested

$14,000

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$900

Record

—

alpheclabs2

Moise Kouame

Invested

$4,324.23

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$344.69

Record

—

38791873984189

Moise Kouame

Invested

$1,363.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$280.45

Record

—

Flaznorp

Moise Kouame

Invested

$895.69

Value

$944.25

PnL

+$48.56

Record

—

Limousin

Moise Kouame

Invested

$834.94

Value

$764.87

PnL

-$70.07

Record

—

LightParadox

Moise Kouame

Invested

$516.43

Value

$595.47

PnL

+$79.04

Record

—

MadridTime

Moise Kouame

Invested

$405.06

Value

$520.97

PnL

+$115.91

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Moise Kouame

Invested

$182.55

Value

$218.42

PnL

+$35.87

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Moise Kouame

Invested

$127.39

Value

$134.64

PnL

+$7.25

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR

Robert Strombachs

Invested

$119.46

Value

$113.12

PnL

+$28.16

Record

—

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100

Robert Strombachs

Invested

$82.08

Value

$88.92

PnL

+$6.84

Record

49%

591-613 (1204)

Eulhunter<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$75.6

Value

$80.46

PnL

+$4.86

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Robert Strombachs

Invested

$57.74

Value

$79.25

PnL

+$21.51

Record

—

machinelearned<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$33.3

Value

$37.65

PnL

+$4.35

Record

—

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Robert Strombachs

Invested

$96.25

Value

$37.11

PnL

-$59.14

Record

—

BillBenter2026<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$23.16

Value

$24.62

PnL

+$1.46

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$26.92

Value

$21.67

PnL

-$0.18

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Robert Strombachs

Invested

$20.33

Value

$20.87

PnL

+$0.54

Record

45%

14909-18248 (33157)

0xheavy888<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.86

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

efntrick<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

3741-3962 (7703)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Robert Strombachs

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.5

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Robert Strombachs

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.32

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralMoise Kouame at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Moise Kouame

15 of 22 top traders (68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Moise Kouame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRobert Strombachs 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrMoise Kouame 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoise Kouame 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Moise Kouame 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Moise Kouame wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.