Charlottesville: Stefan Kozlov vs Aidan Mayo

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Aidan Mayo (67%) · Aidan Mayo at 52¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 15

Stefan Kozlov49¢Aidan Mayo51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aidan Mayo

Consensus Traders

Aidan Mayo 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$956.54

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 51.5¢

+17% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

12 of 18 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Stefan Kozlov49%

Aidan Mayo52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aidan Mayo12 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares19,258

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Stefan Kozlov6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,052

Combined PnL-$401.4

Aidan Mayo — 67%Stefan Kozlov — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Aidan Mayo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAidan Mayo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrAidan Mayo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAidan Mayo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Aidan Mayo 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Aidan Mayoavg 40.1¢	$3.1K	$3.9K	+$779.12	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI Limousin	Aidan Mayoavg 37.1¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$381.79	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
38 38791873984189CTR	Stefan Kozlovavg 60.7¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$355.49	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
VeryLucky888	Aidan Mayoavg 61¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$91.97	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 62.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$98.36	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Stefan Kozlov leg	Stefan Kozlovavg 62.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$101.93
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 42.5¢	$303.88	$307.45	+$3.58
0xheavy888	Aidan Mayoavg 61¢	$813.73	$820.4	+$6.67	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
LI LightParadox	Aidan Mayoavg 38.1¢	$493.84	$557.75	+$63.91	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Aidan Mayoavg 44¢	$445.86	$513.79	+$67.93	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
TH thestingsnake	Aidan Mayoavg 36.3¢	$618.5	$379.26	+$90.84	60% 4593-3091 (7684)
RN1CTR	Stefan Kozlovavg 52.8¢	$368.79	$338.73	-$30.06	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
EU Eulhunter	Aidan Mayoavg 38.4¢	$282.37	$316.44	+$34.07	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 39.5¢	$233.92	$259.78	+$25.86	53% 848-749 (1597)
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 39.5¢	$132.7	$144.51	+$11.81
└ Stefan Kozlov leg	Stefan Kozlovavg 50.1¢	$101.22	$115.27	+$14.04
VE VenusianARB<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 40¢	$106.63	$141.52	+$34.89	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
└ Stefan Kozlov leg	Stefan Kozlovavg 40¢	$65.93	$94.77	+$28.84
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 37¢	$40.7	$46.75	+$6.05
EF efntrick	Aidan Mayoavg 60.7¢	$109.2	$110.7	+$1.5	49% 3711-3940 (7651)
SE sentrio	Aidan Mayoavg 61¢	$163.37	$100.47	+$0.82	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 37¢	$68.08	$90.16	+$22.08	55% 3880-3232 (7112)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 48.2¢	$74.8	$80	+$5.2	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 45.3¢	$36.2	$40.4	+$4.2
└ Stefan Kozlov leg	Stefan Kozlovavg 48.2¢	$38.6	$39.6	+$1
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 63¢	$79.96	$69	-$10.96	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
PA Pan9X	Aidan Mayoavg 60.3¢	$111	$64.82	+$1.2	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 61¢	$18.3	$15.3	-$3	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 66¢	$16.45	$14.33	-$2.12	65% 25410-13589 (38999)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Stefan Kozlovavg 49¢	$5.42	$5.64	+$0.22	50% 23433-23429 (46862)

MadridTime

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$3,088.67

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$779.12

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Limousin

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$1,195.32

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$381.79

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

38791873984189CTR

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$1,932.06

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$355.49

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

VeryLucky888

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$1,602.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$91.97

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$1,445.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$98.36

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Stefan Kozlov$1,141.4762.6¢-$101.93

Aidan Mayo$303.8842.5¢+$3.58

0xheavy888

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$813.73

Value

$820.4

PnL

+$6.67

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

LightParadox

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$493.84

Value

$557.75

PnL

+$63.91

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

ferrariChampions2026

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$445.86

Value

$513.79

PnL

+$67.93

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

thestingsnake

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$618.5

Value

$379.26

PnL

+$90.84

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

RN1CTR

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$368.79

Value

$338.73

PnL

-$30.06

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Eulhunter

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$282.37

Value

$316.44

PnL

+$34.07

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$233.92

Value

$259.78

PnL

+$25.86

Record

53%

848-749 (1597)

Both legs:

Aidan Mayo$132.739.5¢+$11.81

Stefan Kozlov$101.2250.1¢+$14.04

VenusianARB<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$106.63

Value

$141.52

PnL

+$34.89

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Both legs:

Stefan Kozlov$65.9340¢+$28.84

Aidan Mayo$40.737¢+$6.05

efntrick

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$109.2

Value

$110.7

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

3711-3940 (7651)

sentrio

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$163.37

Value

$100.47

PnL

+$0.82

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$68.08

Value

$90.16

PnL

+$22.08

Record

55%

3880-3232 (7112)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$74.8

Value

$80

PnL

+$5.2

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

Both legs:

Aidan Mayo$36.245.3¢+$4.2

Stefan Kozlov$38.648.2¢+$1

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$79.96

Value

$69

PnL

-$10.96

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

Pan9X

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$111

Value

$64.82

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$18.3

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$3

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$16.45

Value

$14.33

PnL

-$2.12

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Stefan Kozlov

Invested

$5.42

Value

$5.64

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

12 of 18 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Aidan Mayo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAidan Mayo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrAidan Mayo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedAidan Mayo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Aidan Mayo 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aidan Mayo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.