BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Tomas Machac vs Borna Gojo

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Machac (57%) · Tomas Machac at 70¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 16

Tomas Machac70¢Borna Gojo30¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tomas Machac

Consensus Traders

Tomas Machac 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$165.21

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 69.5¢

+5% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralTomas Machac at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Machac

12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tomas Machac70%

Borna Gojo31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Machac12 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares11,008

Combined PnL+$253.63

Borna Gojo9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares11,281

Combined PnL-$88.42

Tomas Machac — 57%Borna Gojo — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Borna Gojoavg 30.9¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$23.54	46% 33777-39454 (73231)
└ Tomas Machac leg	Tomas Machacavg 64¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$329.25
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 30.9¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$352.79
CH ch27er	Tomas Machacavg 67.1¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$109.25	54% 52-44 (96)
KK KkunnCTR	Borna Gojoavg 31.2¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$21.12	42% 262-364 (626)
FL Flaznorp	Tomas Machacavg 65.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$60.4	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
LI LightParadox	Tomas Machacavg 69.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$62.57	45% 2685-3222 (5907)
1L 1lovejump	Tomas Machacavg 63.3¢	$973.17	$997.29	+$119.12	53% 860-756 (1616)
EU Eulhunter	Tomas Machacavg 64.1¢	$351.87	$409.01	+$57.13	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
RN1CTR	Borna Gojoavg 30¢	$401.38	$341.17	-$60.21	53% 72043-63546 (135589)
38 38791873984189	Tomas Machacavg 64.1¢	$681.24	$332.49	+$16.43	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Tomas Machacavg 69¢	$276	$278	+$2	51% 2350-2286 (4636)
KC Kch-TempCTR	Borna Gojoavg 29¢	$256.9	$270.12	+$13.21	52% 252-237 (489)
TH thestingsnake	Tomas Machacavg 63¢	$192	$227.05	+$35.05	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
machinelearned	Tomas Machacavg 62.2¢	$119.4	$131.2	+$11.8	54% 10552-8958 (19510)
tradecraft	Tomas Machacavg 70¢	$133.9	$130.4	-$3.5	51% 6925-6572 (13497)
EF efntrick	Tomas Machacavg 68.7¢	$123.6	$125.1	+$1.5	49% 3736-3960 (7696)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Tomas Machacavg 69¢	$51.78	$52.16	+$0.38	65% 2216-1213 (3429)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Borna Gojoavg 34.1¢	$57.98	$45.05	-$12.93	45% 2757-3338 (6095)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Borna Gojoavg 30¢	$43.85	$43.67	-$0.18	46% 2784-3230 (6014)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Borna Gojoavg 30¢	$115.44	$21.98	-$0.45	58% 231-170 (401)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Borna Gojoavg 35.1¢	$20.3	$15.32	-$4.98	45% 2690-3266 (5956)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Borna Gojoavg 30¢	$9.9	$8.75	-$1.15	53% 28380-25663 (54043)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Borna Gojoavg 28.5¢	$8.55	$7.95	-$0.6	52% 6198-5722 (11920)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$4,673.13

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$23.54

Record

46%

33777-39454 (73231)

Both legs:

Tomas Machac$2,215.4464¢+$329.25

Borna Gojo$2,457.6930.9¢-$352.79

ch27er

Tomas Machac

Invested

$2,796.75

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$109.25

Record

54%

52-44 (96)

KkunnCTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$2,687.12

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$21.12

Record

42%

262-364 (626)

Flaznorp

Tomas Machac

Invested

$1,161.42

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$60.4

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

LightParadox

Tomas Machac

Invested

$1,128.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$62.57

Record

45%

2685-3222 (5907)

1lovejump

Tomas Machac

Invested

$973.17

Value

$997.29

PnL

+$119.12

Record

53%

860-756 (1616)

Eulhunter

Tomas Machac

Invested

$351.87

Value

$409.01

PnL

+$57.13

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

RN1CTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$401.38

Value

$341.17

PnL

-$60.21

Record

53%

72043-63546 (135589)

38791873984189

Tomas Machac

Invested

$681.24

Value

$332.49

PnL

+$16.43

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Tomas Machac

Invested

$276

Value

$278

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

2350-2286 (4636)

Kch-TempCTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$256.9

Value

$270.12

PnL

+$13.21

Record

52%

252-237 (489)

thestingsnake

Tomas Machac

Invested

$192

Value

$227.05

PnL

+$35.05

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

machinelearned

Tomas Machac

Invested

$119.4

Value

$131.2

PnL

+$11.8

Record

54%

10552-8958 (19510)

tradecraft

Tomas Machac

Invested

$133.9

Value

$130.4

PnL

-$3.5

Record

51%

6925-6572 (13497)

efntrick

Tomas Machac

Invested

$123.6

Value

$125.1

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

3736-3960 (7696)

darkumbreon88<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$51.78

Value

$52.16

PnL

+$0.38

Record

65%

2216-1213 (3429)

VenusianCTR<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$57.98

Value

$45.05

PnL

-$12.93

Record

45%

2757-3338 (6095)

LimousinCTR<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$43.85

Value

$43.67

PnL

-$0.18

Record

46%

2784-3230 (6014)

thirdt1meCTR

Borna Gojo

Invested

$115.44

Value

$21.98

PnL

-$0.45

Record

58%

231-170 (401)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$20.3

Value

$15.32

PnL

-$4.98

Record

45%

2690-3266 (5956)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$9.9

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$1.15

Record

53%

28380-25663 (54043)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$8.55

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

6198-5722 (11920)

Research grade

NeutralTomas Machac at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Machac

12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tomas Machac wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.