Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Toby Samuel, while the market favors Adrian Mannarino (69%). 14 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Toby Samuel (64%) · Toby Samuel at 32¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 15

Adrian Mannarino69¢Toby Samuel31¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toby Samuel

Consensus Traders

Toby Samuel 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.1K

Combined PnL

-$170.77

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 31.5¢

-33% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Mannarino 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Adrian Mannarino69%

Toby Samuel32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toby Samuel14 traders

Total Value$26.5K

Total Shares60,440

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Adrian Mannarino8 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares16,054

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Toby Samuel — 64%Adrian Mannarino — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Toby Samuelavg 45.7¢	$14.2K	$14.8K	+$560.95	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
FE ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 50¢	$4.9K	$5.4K	+$465.51	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 50¢	$3.5K	$4.2K	+$696.92
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 47.6¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$231.4
0X 0xNuttawut	Adrian Mannarinoavg 51¢	$2.9K	$3.9K	+$996.59	51% 1236-1201 (2437)
OM omnibus-076daa	Adrian Mannarinoavg 51¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$472.19	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
AF 0xafef...f50eCTR	Toby Samuelavg 50¢	$3.7K	$2.8K	-$936.77	—
65 6512395314597884CTR	Toby Samuelavg 47.9¢	$3.4K	$2.4K	$-1.0K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Toby Samuelavg 47.4¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$68.49	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 47.4¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$96.48
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 52.1¢	$328.52	$356.51	+$27.99
MA MadridTimeCTR	Toby Samuelavg 48¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$425.57	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
TRCM	Adrian Mannarinoavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$295.24	55% 4093-3300 (7393)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$18.23	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53¢	$595.67	$668.52	+$72.85
└ Toby Samuel leg	Toby Samuelavg 48¢	$582.34	$491.27	-$91.07
NO NotradecopyCTR	Toby Samuelavg 45¢	$999.99	$1.1K	+$55.56	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
VeryLucky888CTR	Toby Samuelavg 45.7¢	$2.1K	$1.0K	+$11.92	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
LI Limousin	Adrian Mannarinoavg 50.5¢	$697.73	$800.42	+$102.69	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
HI hi774cCTR	Toby Samuelavg 45¢	$658.62	$695.21	+$36.59	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Toby Samuelavg 49¢	$719.92	$655.46	-$64.46	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Toby Samuelavg 50¢	$754.39	$611.05	-$143.33	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Toby Samuelavg 50¢	$706.73	$606.34	-$100.39	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
TH thestingsnake	Adrian Mannarinoavg 53.6¢	$378.68	$225.56	+$24.83	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
DA darkumbreon88	Adrian Mannarinoavg 52¢	$91.88	$105.14	+$13.25	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
PT PT-S7CTR	Toby Samuelavg 43.9¢	$141.7	$94.16	-$29.9	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 47¢	$91.63	$78.96	-$12.67	48% 3689-3932 (7621)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 48.6¢	$62.65	$52.25	-$10.4	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
machinelearned<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 55¢	$49.06	$51.67	+$2.61	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Toby Samuelavg 47.8¢	$45.89	$45.6	-$0.29	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 59.6¢	$19.07	$19.2	+$0.13	57% 19479-14427 (33906)

RN1CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$14,204.69

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$560.95

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

ferrariChampions2026ARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$4,937.74

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$465.51

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$3,484.5950¢+$696.92

Toby Samuel$1,453.1647.6¢-$231.4

0xNuttawut

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$2,903.11

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$996.59

Record

51%

1236-1201 (2437)

omnibus-076daa

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$3,215.29

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$472.19

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

0xafef...f50eCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3,747.07

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$936.77

Record

—

6512395314597884CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$3,395.46

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$2,150.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$68.49

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Toby Samuel$1,442.447.4¢-$96.48

Adrian Mannarino$328.5252.1¢+$27.99

MadridTimeCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$2,031.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$425.57

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

TRCM

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$1,306.72

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$295.24

Record

55%

4093-3300 (7393)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$1,178.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$18.23

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$595.6753¢+$72.85

Toby Samuel$582.3448¢-$91.07

NotradecopyCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$55.56

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

VeryLucky888CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$2,131.89

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$11.92

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Limousin

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$697.73

Value

$800.42

PnL

+$102.69

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

hi774cCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$658.62

Value

$695.21

PnL

+$36.59

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$719.92

Value

$655.46

PnL

-$64.46

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$754.39

Value

$611.05

PnL

-$143.33

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

LightParadoxCTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$706.73

Value

$606.34

PnL

-$100.39

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

thestingsnake

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$378.68

Value

$225.56

PnL

+$24.83

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

darkumbreon88

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$91.88

Value

$105.14

PnL

+$13.25

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

PT-S7CTR

Toby Samuel

Invested

$141.7

Value

$94.16

PnL

-$29.9

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

efntrickCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$91.63

Value

$78.96

PnL

-$12.67

Record

48%

3689-3932 (7621)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$62.65

Value

$52.25

PnL

-$10.4

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

machinelearned<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$49.06

Value

$51.67

PnL

+$2.61

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Toby Samuel

Invested

$45.89

Value

$45.6

PnL

-$0.29

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

BillBenter2026<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$19.07

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$0.13

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Research grade

NeutralToby Samuel at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Toby Samuel

14 of 22 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Mannarino 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toby Samuel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.