Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hynek Barton, while the market favors Lui Maxted (56%). 14 of 32 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Knoxville: Lui Maxted vs Hynek Barton

14 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Hynek Barton (44%) · Hynek Barton at 45¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 17

Lui Maxted56¢Hynek Barton44¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hynek Barton

Consensus Traders

Hynek Barton 44%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$48.0K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 44.5¢

-7% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralHynek Barton at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hynek Barton

14 of 32 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Lui Maxted 56%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lui Maxted56%

Hynek Barton45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lui Maxted18 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares29,097

Combined PnL-$897.6

Hynek Barton14 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares42,686

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Lui Maxted — 56%Hynek Barton — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Lui Maxtedavg 56¢	$10.0K	$9.5K	-$552.59	51% 3162-3063 (6225)
SH SharkVisionARB<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 55¢	$4.6K	$5.1K	+$488.72	— 3-0 (3)
└ Hynek Barton leg	Hynek Bartonavg 36.5¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$443.6
└ Lui Maxted leg	Lui Maxtedavg 55¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$45.12
12xmrboltCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 36.9¢	$8.2K	$4.6K	+$386.17	8% 3-36 (39)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 56.7¢	$4.5K	$3.5K	$-1.0K	25% 213-642 (855)
RN1CTR	Hynek Bartonavg 60.1¢	$3.6K	$3.2K	-$458.22	58% 3756-2709 (6465)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18ARB<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 60.9¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$270.2	— 8-6 (14)
└ Lui Maxted leg	Lui Maxtedavg 60.9¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$237.01
└ Hynek Barton leg	Hynek Bartonavg 30¢	$663.75	$696.94	+$33.19
38 38791873984189	Lui Maxtedavg 57.8¢	$6.2K	$2.8K	-$320.32	48% 840-912 (1752)
TH thirdt1me	Lui Maxtedavg 46.4¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$600.24	37% 68-118 (186)
VE VenusianCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 46.6¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$472.32	25% 212-653 (865)
LI Limousin	Lui Maxtedavg 68.4¢	$2.7K	$1.5K	-$669.82	25% 212-653 (865)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 51¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$597.53	25% 214-632 (846)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 50.7¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$273.1	17% 71-337 (408)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 57.3¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	+$226.83	22% 117-422 (539)
└ Lui Maxted leg	Lui Maxtedavg 57.3¢	$624.77	$719.2	+$210.59
└ Hynek Barton leg	Hynek Bartonavg 32.9¢	$492.53	$508.77	+$16.24
OJ ojg	Lui Maxtedavg 65.1¢	$992.06	$1.0K	+$13.77	37% 86-144 (230)
alpheclabs2CTR	Hynek Bartonavg 35.8¢	$930.2	$1.0K	+$70.39	47% 73-82 (155)
FL Flaznorp	Lui Maxtedavg 53.3¢	$682.86	$845.95	+$163.09	50% 1407-1409 (2816)
SE sentrioCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 59.2¢	$782.95	$694.04	-$88.91	31% 169-382 (551)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 59¢	$566	$596.75	+$30.75	52% 5344-4847 (10191)
└ Lui Maxted leg	Lui Maxtedavg 59¢	$383.5	$419.25	+$35.75
└ Hynek Barton leg	Hynek Bartonavg 36.5¢	$182.5	$177.5	-$5
ER Erick2307CTR	Hynek Bartonavg 36.1¢	$562.51	$492.76	-$27.41	— 3-3 (6)
0xheavy888	Lui Maxtedavg 60¢	$400.2	$320.16	-$80.04	55% 106-85 (191)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Lui Maxtedavg 65.4¢	$314.34	$285.2	-$29.14	35% 326-609 (935)
└ Lui Maxted leg	Lui Maxtedavg 65.4¢	$183.2	$184.8	+$1.6
└ Hynek Barton leg	Hynek Bartonavg 44.4¢	$131.15	$100.41	-$30.74
EU EulhunterCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 45¢	$246.11	$240.68	-$5.43	52% 61-57 (118)
SU suitcase6628	Lui Maxtedavg 56.7¢	$184.41	$214.61	+$30.2	63% 151-88 (239)
NM NM-PCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 42¢	$165.39	$211.86	+$46.47	60% 3442-2335 (5777)
GC GC-PCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 42¢	$165.39	$211.86	+$46.47	16% 66-347 (413)

6512395314597884

Lui Maxted

Invested

$10,041.18

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$552.59

Record

51%

3162-3063 (6225)

SharkVisionARB<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$4,609.41

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$488.72

Record

—

3-0 (3)

Both legs:

Hynek Barton$2,160.0536.5¢+$443.6

Lui Maxted$2,449.3655¢+$45.12

12xmrboltCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$8,152.11

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$386.17

Record

3-36 (39)

LightParadoxCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$4,527.18

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

RN1CTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$3,639.11

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$458.22

Record

58%

3756-2709 (6465)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18ARB<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$2,554.81

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$270.2

Record

—

8-6 (14)

Both legs:

Lui Maxted$1,891.0560.9¢+$237.01

Hynek Barton$663.7530¢+$33.19

38791873984189

Lui Maxted

Invested

$6,203.45

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$320.32

Record

48%

840-912 (1752)

thirdt1me

Lui Maxted

Invested

$2,586.89

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$600.24

Record

37%

68-118 (186)

VenusianCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$1,987.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$472.32

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

Limousin

Lui Maxted

Invested

$2,719.12

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$669.82

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

MadridTimeCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$1,912.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$597.53

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

thestingsnakeCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$1,601.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$273.1

Record

17%

71-337 (408)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$1,806.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$226.83

Record

22%

117-422 (539)

Both legs:

Lui Maxted$624.7757.3¢+$210.59

Hynek Barton$492.5332.9¢+$16.24

ojg

Lui Maxted

Invested

$992.06

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$13.77

Record

37%

86-144 (230)

alpheclabs2CTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$930.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$70.39

Record

47%

73-82 (155)

Flaznorp

Lui Maxted

Invested

$682.86

Value

$845.95

PnL

+$163.09

Record

50%

1407-1409 (2816)

sentrioCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$782.95

Value

$694.04

PnL

-$88.91

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

cigarettesARB<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$566

Value

$596.75

PnL

+$30.75

Record

52%

5344-4847 (10191)

Both legs:

Lui Maxted$383.559¢+$35.75

Hynek Barton$182.536.5¢-$5

Erick2307CTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$562.51

Value

$492.76

PnL

-$27.41

Record

—

3-3 (6)

0xheavy888

Lui Maxted

Invested

$400.2

Value

$320.16

PnL

-$80.04

Record

55%

106-85 (191)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Lui Maxted

Invested

$314.34

Value

$285.2

PnL

-$29.14

Record

35%

326-609 (935)

Both legs:

Lui Maxted$183.265.4¢+$1.6

Hynek Barton$131.1544.4¢-$30.74

EulhunterCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$246.11

Value

$240.68

PnL

-$5.43

Record

52%

61-57 (118)

suitcase6628

Lui Maxted

Invested

$184.41

Value

$214.61

PnL

+$30.2

Record

63%

151-88 (239)

NM-PCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$165.39

Value

$211.86

PnL

+$46.47

Record

60%

3442-2335 (5777)

GC-PCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$165.39

Value

$211.86

PnL

+$46.47

Record

16%

66-347 (413)

Research grade

NeutralHynek Barton at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hynek Barton

14 of 32 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Lui Maxted 56%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hynek Barton wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.