Knoxville: Nicolas Mejia vs Jack Kennedy

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Mejia (74%) · Nicolas Mejia at 94¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 16

Nicolas Mejia94¢Jack Kennedy6¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Mejia

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Mejia 74%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.5K

Combined PnL

$653.52

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 93.5¢

+45% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Mejia at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Mejia

14 of 19 top traders (74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Mejia94%

Jack Kennedy7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Mejia14 traders

Total Value$33.5K

Total Shares42,199

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Jack Kennedy5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares12,004

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Nicolas Mejia — 74%Jack Kennedy — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nicolas Mejiaavg 66.9¢	$10.4K	$12.0K	+$1.6K	30% 105-246 (351)
RN1	Nicolas Mejiaavg 58.3¢	$10.3K	$11.8K	+$1.5K	54% 233-201 (434)
38 38791873984189	Nicolas Mejiaavg 64.1¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	+$987.3	49% 383-404 (787)
TH thirdt1me	Nicolas Mejiaavg 61.8¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$567.54	0% 0-34 (34)
FL Flaznorp	Nicolas Mejiaavg 85.9¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$238.44	52% 242-224 (466)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Jack Kennedyavg 39.4¢	$5.4K	$2.6K	$-2.8K	25% 86-262 (348)
└ Jack Kennedy leg	Jack Kennedyavg 39.4¢	$4.3K	$1.6K	$-2.7K
└ Nicolas Mejia leg	Nicolas Mejiaavg 90.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$65.31
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Jack Kennedyavg 39.3¢	$8.5K	$1.8K	$-6.6K	26% 87-252 (339)
└ Jack Kennedy leg	Jack Kennedyavg 39.3¢	$8.0K	$1.3K	$-6.7K
└ Nicolas Mejia leg	Nicolas Mejiaavg 80.5¢	$433.81	$504	+$72.26
LI LimousinCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 42.9¢	$3.4K	$1.4K	$-2.0K	24% 90-282 (372)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Jack Kennedyavg 27.4¢	$2.5K	$842.03	$-1.7K	23% 82-268 (350)
└ Jack Kennedy leg	Jack Kennedyavg 27.4¢	$2.2K	$526.22	$-1.7K
└ Nicolas Mejia leg	Nicolas Mejiaavg 94¢	$317.5	$315.81	-$1.69
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nicolas Mejiaavg 67.6¢	$567.29	$575.45	+$8.15	39% 41-64 (105)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 17.5¢	$436.69	$162.54	-$274.15	5% 4-76 (80)
0xheavy888	Nicolas Mejiaavg 63.8¢	$200.07	$159.9	-$46.44	69% 29-13 (42)
BA babybells	Nicolas Mejiaavg 68.6¢	$205.75	$153	-$52.75	0% 0-93 (93)
CI cigarettes	Nicolas Mejiaavg 72¢	$144	$141	-$3	38% 93-154 (247)
machinelearned	Nicolas Mejiaavg 67.2¢	$115.97	$102.83	-$13.14	44% 148-190 (338)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 44.1¢	$714.37	$83.79	-$537.51	25% 37-109 (146)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 77.5¢	$44.95	$54.81	+$9.86	14% 30-180 (210)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 74¢	$76.11	$45.94	-$6.49	20% 38-153 (191)
LR lryyy<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 47¢	$41.36	$44.88	+$3.52	57% 43-32 (75)
OJ ojgCTR	Jack Kennedyavg 53¢	$204.65	$41.5	-$160.95	33% 48-99 (147)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Jack Kennedyavg 26.8¢	$76.67	$15.72	-$60.94	55% 34-28 (62)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 63.5¢	$5.3	$5.1	-$0.2	18% 42-190 (232)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$10,373.77

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

RN1

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$10,289.77

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

38791873984189

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$4,022.99

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$987.3

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

thirdt1me

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$3,243.84

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$567.54

Record

0-34 (34)

Flaznorp

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$2,401.27

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$238.44

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$5,380.6

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

Both legs:

Jack Kennedy$4,253.5439.4¢$-2.7K

Nicolas Mejia$1,127.0690.8¢-$65.31

LightParadoxARB<$100

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$8,475.96

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

Both legs:

Jack Kennedy$8,011.9939.3¢$-6.7K

Nicolas Mejia$433.8180.5¢+$72.26

LimousinCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$3,397.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

VenusianARB<$100

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$2,532.12

Value

$842.03

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

Both legs:

Jack Kennedy$2,214.6227.4¢$-1.7K

Nicolas Mejia$317.594¢-$1.69

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$567.29

Value

$575.45

PnL

+$8.15

Record

39%

41-64 (105)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$436.69

Value

$162.54

PnL

-$274.15

Record

4-76 (80)

0xheavy888

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$200.07

Value

$159.9

PnL

-$46.44

Record

69%

29-13 (42)

babybells

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$205.75

Value

$153

PnL

-$52.75

Record

0-93 (93)

cigarettes

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$144

Value

$141

PnL

-$3

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

machinelearned

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$115.97

Value

$102.83

PnL

-$13.14

Record

44%

148-190 (338)

thestingsnakeCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$714.37

Value

$83.79

PnL

-$537.51

Record

25%

37-109 (146)

BillBenter2026<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$44.95

Value

$54.81

PnL

+$9.86

Record

14%

30-180 (210)

SchruteBucks<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$76.11

Value

$45.94

PnL

-$6.49

Record

20%

38-153 (191)

lryyy<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$41.36

Value

$44.88

PnL

+$3.52

Record

57%

43-32 (75)

ojgCTR

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$204.65

Value

$41.5

PnL

-$160.95

Record

33%

48-99 (147)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Jack Kennedy

Invested

$76.67

Value

$15.72

PnL

-$60.94

Record

55%

34-28 (62)

ameisgoat11<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Mejia at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Mejia

14 of 19 top traders (74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Mejia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.