Taranto: Maxim Mrva vs Thomas Faurel

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Maxim Mrva (47%) · Maxim Mrva at 70¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 12

Maxim Mrva70¢Thomas Faurel30¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maxim Mrva

Consensus Traders

Maxim Mrva 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$909.01

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 69.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaxim Mrva at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maxim Mrva

9 of 19 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maxim Mrva70%

Thomas Faurel31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maxim Mrva9 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares9,314

Combined PnL+$692.55

Thomas Faurel10 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares9,805

Combined PnL+$216.45

Maxim Mrva — 47%Thomas Faurel — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Maxim Mrva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Thomas Faurel) and the top 1000 (13 on Maxim Mrva) disagree here.

whaleMaxim Mrva 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpMaxim Mrva 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrThomas Faurel 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedThomas Faurel 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Maxim Mrva 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Maxim Mrvaavg 76.2¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$22.88	50% 1305-1289 (2594)
FL Flaznorp	Maxim Mrvaavg 66.4¢	$2.9K	$3.5K	+$554.89	51% 25691-24411 (50102)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 83.6¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$369.47	51% 4753-4623 (9376)
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 83.6¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$316.13
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 35.3¢	$823.38	$770.04	-$53.34
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 34.7¢	$1.2K	$828.22	-$242.98	48% 61013-65836 (126849)
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 34.7¢	$503.16	$456.95	-$156.65
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 84.4¢	$457.6	$371.27	-$86.33
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Thomas Faurelavg 23¢	$847.99	$795.97	-$52.01	42% 7984-11171 (19155)
TH thestingsnake	Maxim Mrvaavg 73.5¢	$664.73	$704.37	+$100.29	60% 4422-2963 (7385)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Thomas Faurelavg 16.7¢	$595.51	$613.82	+$18.3	50% 21143-21403 (42546)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Thomas Faurelavg 16.7¢	$292.79	$579.54	+$286.75	46% 1526-1800 (3326)
1L 1lovejump	Maxim Mrvaavg 71.9¢	$534.17	$241.25	-$5.15	52% 771-698 (1469)
VeryLucky888CTR	Thomas Faurelavg 35¢	$240.11	$226.39	-$13.72	58% 46650-33619 (80269)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 87.6¢	$266.06	$187.05	-$79.01	51% 1367-1324 (2691)
└ Maxim Mrva leg	Maxim Mrvaavg 87.6¢	$141.86	$137.7	-$4.16
└ Thomas Faurel leg	Thomas Faurelavg 37.8¢	$124.2	$49.35	-$74.85
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 33.2¢	$65.39	$65.07	-$0.31	52% 1360-1276 (2636)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 67.5¢	$35.09	$43.42	+$8.33	57% 19322-14302 (33624)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 34¢	$46	$27	-$19	47% 11679-13371 (25050)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 29¢	$21.85	$22.22	+$0.37	51% 6329-6117 (12446)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 16.4¢	$21.96	$18.09	-$3.87	54% 6264-5328 (11592)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 67.3¢	$12.56	$15.34	+$2.77	65% 5260-2878 (8138)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 64¢	$8.89	$10.83	+$1.94	64% 1956-1089 (3045)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Maxim Mrvaavg 78.9¢	$3.94	$3.35	-$0.59	52% 14474-13172 (27646)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 33.1¢	$1.76	$1.75	-$0	53% 1404-1252 (2656)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Thomas Faurelavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.65	-$0.05	52% 8751-7963 (16714)
FL flatbarrel	Maxim Mrvaavg 75¢	$136.5	$1.53	+$7.18	58% 2799-2005 (4804)

MadridTime

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$3,663.62

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$22.88

Record

50%

1305-1289 (2594)

Flaznorp

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$2,947.62

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$554.89

Record

51%

25691-24411 (50102)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$2,411.92

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$369.47

Record

51%

4753-4623 (9376)

Both legs:

Maxim Mrva$1,588.5483.6¢-$316.13

Thomas Faurel$823.3835.3¢-$53.34

38791873984189ARB<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$1,165.76

Value

$828.22

PnL

-$242.98

Record

48%

61013-65836 (126849)

Both legs:

Thomas Faurel$503.1634.7¢-$156.65

Maxim Mrva$457.684.4¢-$86.33

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$847.99

Value

$795.97

PnL

-$52.01

Record

42%

7984-11171 (19155)

thestingsnake

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$664.73

Value

$704.37

PnL

+$100.29

Record

60%

4422-2963 (7385)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$595.51

Value

$613.82

PnL

+$18.3

Record

50%

21143-21403 (42546)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$292.79

Value

$579.54

PnL

+$286.75

Record

46%

1526-1800 (3326)

1lovejump

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$534.17

Value

$241.25

PnL

-$5.15

Record

52%

771-698 (1469)

VeryLucky888CTR

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$240.11

Value

$226.39

PnL

-$13.72

Record

58%

46650-33619 (80269)

VenusianARB<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$266.06

Value

$187.05

PnL

-$79.01

Record

51%

1367-1324 (2691)

Both legs:

Maxim Mrva$141.8687.6¢-$4.16

Thomas Faurel$124.237.8¢-$74.85

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$65.39

Value

$65.07

PnL

-$0.31

Record

52%

1360-1276 (2636)

BillBenter2026<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$35.09

Value

$43.42

PnL

+$8.33

Record

57%

19322-14302 (33624)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$46

Value

$27

PnL

-$19

Record

47%

11679-13371 (25050)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$21.85

Value

$22.22

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

6329-6117 (12446)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$21.96

Value

$18.09

PnL

-$3.87

Record

54%

6264-5328 (11592)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$12.56

Value

$15.34

PnL

+$2.77

Record

65%

5260-2878 (8138)

darkumbreon88<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$8.89

Value

$10.83

PnL

+$1.94

Record

64%

1956-1089 (3045)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.59

Record

52%

14474-13172 (27646)

LimousinCTR<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1404-1252 (2656)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Thomas Faurel

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8751-7963 (16714)

flatbarrel

Maxim Mrva

Invested

$136.5

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$7.18

Record

58%

2799-2005 (4804)

Research grade

NeutralMaxim Mrva at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maxim Mrva

9 of 19 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Maxim Mrva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Thomas Faurel) and the top 1000 (13 on Maxim Mrva) disagree here.

whaleMaxim Mrva 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpMaxim Mrva 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrThomas Faurel 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedThomas Faurel 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Maxim Mrva 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maxim Mrva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.