Brisbane 3: Carl Overbeck vs Juncheng Shang

20 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Juncheng Shang (59%) · Juncheng Shang at 100¢ · $210K held · ends Nov 18

Carl Overbeck<1¢Juncheng Shang>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juncheng Shang

Consensus Traders

Juncheng Shang 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$210.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuncheng Shang at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

20 of 34 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Carl Overbeck0%

Juncheng Shang100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juncheng Shang20 traders

Total Value$188.1K

Total Shares189,894

Combined PnL+$16.4K

Carl Overbeck14 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares100,330

Combined PnL$-18.8K

Juncheng Shang — 59%Carl Overbeck — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Carl Overbeck) and the top 1000 (22 on Juncheng Shang) disagree here.

sniperJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuncheng Shang 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarl Overbeck 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 82% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Woaifacai	Juncheng Shangavg 74¢	$95.0K	$96.9K	+$16.6K	62% 226-139 (365)
RN1	Juncheng Shangavg 78.8¢	$32.7K	$26.5K	$-6.2K	57% 4319-3324 (7643)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Juncheng Shangavg 62¢	$25.3K	$22.0K	$-3.2K	51% 3752-3559 (7311)
TH thirdt1me	Juncheng Shangavg 69.7¢	$18.0K	$18.5K	+$5.8K	44% 139-175 (314)
LI LightParadox	Juncheng Shangavg 62.4¢	$9.3K	$9.9K	+$549.9	32% 500-1044 (1544)
0X 0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918CTR	Carl Overbeckavg 25.3¢	$8.0K	$8.5K	+$527.92	50% 18-18 (36)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Carl Overbeckavg 43.9¢	$9.7K	$5.4K	$-4.3K	33% 503-1013 (1516)
VE VenusianCTR	Carl Overbeckavg 33.4¢	$7.6K	$4.6K	$-3.0K	32% 496-1046 (1542)
isco22	Juncheng Shangavg 50¢	$3.0K	$4.0K	+$1.0K	— 1-14 (15)
alpheclabs2	Juncheng Shangavg 63.2¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$552.44	44% 159-200 (359)
38 38791873984189	Juncheng Shangavg 78.1¢	$12.7K	$1.8K	+$123.67	47% 1845-2082 (3927)
CI cigarettes	Juncheng Shangavg 75.9¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$416.5	53% 5995-5369 (11364)
OJ ojg	Juncheng Shangavg 57.5¢	$748	$1.3K	+$551.35	45% 154-191 (345)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Juncheng Shangavg 72.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$108.57	41% 615-871 (1486)
└ Juncheng Shang leg	Juncheng Shangavg 72.1¢	$725.54	$860.04	+$134.5
└ Carl Overbeck leg	Carl Overbeckavg 27.6¢	$512.82	$269.75	-$243.06
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Carl Overbeckavg 28.3¢	$26.8K	$904.86	+$337.67	47% 303-337 (640)
1L 1lovejump	Juncheng Shangavg 79.8¢	$1.6K	$846.18	+$18.14	35% 88-163 (251)
LI LimousinCTR	Carl Overbeckavg 34.7¢	$3.5K	$609.81	$-1.8K	32% 489-1029 (1518)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Carl Overbeckavg 35.5¢	$2.5K	$513.49	-$510.29	28% 152-390 (542)
SM smithagent	Juncheng Shangavg 96¢	$492.35	$505.85	+$14.6	42% 303-416 (719)
EU Eulhunter	Juncheng Shangavg 71.6¢	$370.44	$294.5	-$75.94	50% 124-125 (249)
NO NotJump	Juncheng Shangavg 61.3¢	$4.4K	$219.32	+$195.35	54% 386-329 (715)
BA babybells	Juncheng Shangavg 69.8¢	$1.0K	$198.47	+$82.42	26% 145-422 (567)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Juncheng Shangavg 72.8¢	$646.82	$198.26	-$21.12	40% 230-347 (577)
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Juncheng Shangavg 84.9¢	$149.45	$175.91	+$26.46	— 2-7 (9)
TRCMCTR	Carl Overbeckavg 36¢	$177	$142.58	-$34.42	12% 59-438 (497)

Woaifacai

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$94,998.42

Value

$96.9K

PnL

+$16.6K

Record

62%

226-139 (365)

RN1

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$32,727.85

Value

$26.5K

PnL

$-6.2K

Record

57%

4319-3324 (7643)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$25,257.96

Value

$22.0K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

51%

3752-3559 (7311)

thirdt1me

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$18,007.62

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

44%

139-175 (314)

LightParadox

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$9,347.87

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$549.9

Record

32%

500-1044 (1544)

0xe1C08abF3f7D340682A42811250223393DF7eCF1-1781642316918CTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$7,998.84

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$527.92

Record

50%

18-18 (36)

MadridTimeCTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$9,704.35

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

33%

503-1013 (1516)

VenusianCTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$7,591.23

Value

$4.6K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

32%

496-1046 (1542)

isco22

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$2,993.41

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

—

1-14 (15)

alpheclabs2

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$2,289.47

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$552.44

Record

44%

159-200 (359)

38791873984189

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$12,677.45

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$123.67

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

cigarettes

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$1,365.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$416.5

Record

53%

5995-5369 (11364)

ojg

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$748

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$551.35

Record

45%

154-191 (345)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$1,238.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$108.57

Record

41%

615-871 (1486)

Both legs:

Juncheng Shang$725.5472.1¢+$134.5

Carl Overbeck$512.8227.6¢-$243.06

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$26,824.19

Value

$904.86

PnL

+$337.67

Record

47%

303-337 (640)

1lovejump

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$1,635.02

Value

$846.18

PnL

+$18.14

Record

35%

88-163 (251)

LimousinCTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$3,516.75

Value

$609.81

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

32%

489-1029 (1518)

thestingsnakeCTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$2,525.03

Value

$513.49

PnL

-$510.29

Record

28%

152-390 (542)

smithagent

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$492.35

Value

$505.85

PnL

+$14.6

Record

42%

303-416 (719)

Eulhunter

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$370.44

Value

$294.5

PnL

-$75.94

Record

50%

124-125 (249)

NotJump

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$4,360.11

Value

$219.32

PnL

+$195.35

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

babybells

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$1,020.65

Value

$198.47

PnL

+$82.42

Record

26%

145-422 (567)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$646.82

Value

$198.26

PnL

-$21.12

Record

40%

230-347 (577)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Juncheng Shang

Invested

$149.45

Value

$175.91

PnL

+$26.46

Record

—

2-7 (9)

TRCMCTR

Carl Overbeck

Invested

$177

Value

$142.58

PnL

-$34.42

Record

12%

59-438 (497)

Research grade

NeutralJuncheng Shang at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Juncheng Shang

20 of 34 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Juncheng Shang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Carl Overbeck) and the top 1000 (22 on Juncheng Shang) disagree here.

sniperJuncheng Shang 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJuncheng Shang 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedCarl Overbeck 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Juncheng Shang 82% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juncheng Shang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.