Orleans: Zsombor Piros vs Luca Nardi

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Zsombor Piros (56%) · Zsombor Piros at 64¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 17

Zsombor Piros64¢Luca Nardi36¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zsombor Piros

Consensus Traders

Zsombor Piros 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

-$290.05

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 63.5¢

+27% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralZsombor Piros at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zsombor Piros

10 of 18 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zsombor Piros64%

Luca Nardi37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zsombor Piros10 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares11,548

Combined PnL+$495.12

Luca Nardi8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,633

Combined PnL-$785.17

Zsombor Piros — 56%Luca Nardi — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Zsombor Piros. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpZsombor Piros 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrZsombor Piros 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedZsombor Piros 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Zsombor Piros 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Zsombor Pirosavg 47¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$235.21	48% 223-237 (460)
WH whosay	Zsombor Pirosavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$225	— 12-6 (18)
LI Limousin	Zsombor Pirosavg 49.7¢	$1.0K	$992.7	-$24.73	24% 207-650 (857)
VE VenusianCTR	Luca Nardiavg 54.3¢	$1.4K	$855.03	-$343.65	25% 210-646 (856)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Luca Nardiavg 45.4¢	$985.41	$814.57	-$170.84	54% 1615-1366 (2981)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Luca Nardiavg 46.6¢	$752.26	$731.65	-$20.62	48% 802-884 (1686)
└ Luca Nardi leg	Luca Nardiavg 46.6¢	$536.22	$419.85	-$116.37
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 44¢	$216.05	$311.79	+$95.75
TH thirdt1meCTR	Luca Nardiavg 49.5¢	$1.1K	$697.93	-$221.07	36% 66-116 (182)
TH thestingsnake	Zsombor Pirosavg 52.3¢	$544.74	$627.23	+$84.74	17% 69-334 (403)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 42.8¢	$287.81	$374.97	+$87.16	53% 59-52 (111)
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 42.8¢	$197.82	$293.21	+$95.39
└ Luca Nardi leg	Luca Nardiavg 40.2¢	$89.99	$81.76	-$8.23
0xheavy888	Zsombor Pirosavg 47¢	$313.32	$313.32	-$0	56% 105-82 (187)
MA MadridTime	Zsombor Pirosavg 51.9¢	$327.02	$261.47	-$65.55	25% 210-628 (838)
LI LightParadox	Zsombor Pirosavg 48¢	$204.74	$232.47	+$41.94	25% 209-639 (848)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 45.3¢	$146.37	$148.34	+$1.96	56% 3791-2951 (6742)
└ Luca Nardi leg	Luca Nardiavg 52.9¢	$71.76	$76.69	+$4.94
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 45.3¢	$74.62	$71.64	-$2.98
BA babybellsARB<$100	Luca Nardiavg 50.1¢	$100.15	$97.9	-$2.25	17% 73-363 (436)
└ Luca Nardi leg	Luca Nardiavg 50.1¢	$67.65	$63.45	-$4.2
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 50¢	$32.5	$34.45	+$1.95
FL FlaznorpCTR	Luca Nardiavg 54¢	$127.37	$86.06	-$41.31	50% 1393-1407 (2800)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Luca Nardiavg 50.9¢	$61.78	$57	-$4.78	35% 317-601 (918)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 54.4¢	$35.7	$27.63	-$4.55	12% 65-461 (526)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 50¢	$22.5	$24.53	+$2.03	19% 114-480 (594)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Luca Nardiavg 51.9¢	$17.3	$15.68	-$1.63	48% 414-448 (862)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 48.8¢	$12.2	$13.25	+$1.05	23% 150-497 (647)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Luca Nardiavg 58.5¢	$8.11	$6.52	-$1.59	21% 108-417 (525)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Luca Nardiavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.35	-$0.3	15% 99-566 (665)

VeryLucky888

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$2,008.22

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$235.21

Record

48%

223-237 (460)

whosay

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$1,590

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$225

Record

—

12-6 (18)

Limousin

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$1,017.44

Value

$992.7

PnL

-$24.73

Record

24%

207-650 (857)

VenusianCTR

Luca Nardi

Invested

$1,433.21

Value

$855.03

PnL

-$343.65

Record

25%

210-646 (856)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Luca Nardi

Invested

$985.41

Value

$814.57

PnL

-$170.84

Record

54%

1615-1366 (2981)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$752.26

Value

$731.65

PnL

-$20.62

Record

48%

802-884 (1686)

Both legs:

Luca Nardi$536.2246.6¢-$116.37

Zsombor Piros$216.0544¢+$95.75

thirdt1meCTR

Luca Nardi

Invested

$1,145

Value

$697.93

PnL

-$221.07

Record

36%

66-116 (182)

thestingsnake

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$544.74

Value

$627.23

PnL

+$84.74

Record

17%

69-334 (403)

EulhunterARB<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$287.81

Value

$374.97

PnL

+$87.16

Record

53%

59-52 (111)

Both legs:

Zsombor Piros$197.8242.8¢+$95.39

Luca Nardi$89.9940.2¢-$8.23

0xheavy888

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$313.32

Value

$313.32

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

105-82 (187)

MadridTime

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$327.02

Value

$261.47

PnL

-$65.55

Record

25%

210-628 (838)

LightParadox

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$204.74

Value

$232.47

PnL

+$41.94

Record

25%

209-639 (848)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$146.37

Value

$148.34

PnL

+$1.96

Record

56%

3791-2951 (6742)

Both legs:

Luca Nardi$71.7652.9¢+$4.94

Zsombor Piros$74.6245.3¢-$2.98

babybellsARB<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$100.15

Value

$97.9

PnL

-$2.25

Record

17%

73-363 (436)

Both legs:

Luca Nardi$67.6550.1¢-$4.2

Zsombor Piros$32.550¢+$1.95

FlaznorpCTR

Luca Nardi

Invested

$127.37

Value

$86.06

PnL

-$41.31

Record

50%

1393-1407 (2800)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$61.78

Value

$57

PnL

-$4.78

Record

35%

317-601 (918)

BillBenter2026<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$35.7

Value

$27.63

PnL

-$4.55

Record

12%

65-461 (526)

SchruteBucks<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$22.5

Value

$24.53

PnL

+$2.03

Record

19%

114-480 (594)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$17.3

Value

$15.68

PnL

-$1.63

Record

48%

414-448 (862)

ameisgoat11<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$12.2

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$1.05

Record

23%

150-497 (647)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$8.11

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$1.59

Record

21%

108-417 (525)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Luca Nardi

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.3

Record

15%

99-566 (665)

Research grade

NeutralZsombor Piros at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Zsombor Piros

10 of 18 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Zsombor Piros. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpZsombor Piros 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrZsombor Piros 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedZsombor Piros 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Zsombor Piros 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zsombor Piros wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.