Matsuyama: Rei Sakamoto vs Kasidit Samrej

19 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Rei Sakamoto (79%) · Rei Sakamoto at 94¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 18

Rei Sakamoto94¢Kasidit Samrej6¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rei Sakamoto

Consensus Traders

Rei Sakamoto 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

90.5¢ → 93.5¢

+3% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralRei Sakamoto at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rei Sakamoto

19 of 24 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rei Sakamoto94%

Kasidit Samrej7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rei Sakamoto19 traders

Total Value$34.6K

Total Shares36,778

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Kasidit Samrej5 traders

Total Value$783.96

Total Shares10,891

Combined PnL+$347.63

Rei Sakamoto — 79%Kasidit Samrej — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Rei Sakamoto. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRei Sakamoto 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedRei Sakamoto 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rei Sakamoto 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Rei Sakamotoavg 92.8¢	$10.3K	$10.4K	+$74.6	31% 438-969 (1407)
MA MadridTime	Rei Sakamotoavg 87.2¢	$7.6K	$8.2K	+$553.26	32% 444-952 (1396)
VE Venusian	Rei Sakamotoavg 93.4¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$5.88	31% 444-971 (1415)
LI LightParadox	Rei Sakamotoavg 91.1¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$140.93	31% 441-967 (1408)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Rei Sakamotoavg 78¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$138.32	50% 3334-3292 (6626)
└ Rei Sakamoto leg	Rei Sakamotoavg 78¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$324.24
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 11.3¢	$1.1K	$625.5	-$462.56
TH thestingsnake	Rei Sakamotoavg 86¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	+$167.35	28% 148-389 (537)
FL Flaznorp	Rei Sakamotoavg 81.1¢	$795.55	$822.84	+$27.29	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 39.6¢	$1.1K	$444.03	+$13	55% 367-301 (668)
└ Rei Sakamoto leg	Rei Sakamotoavg 50¢	$189.52	$354.39	+$470.1
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 39.6¢	$546.74	$89.64	-$457.1
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 9.9¢	$599.62	$364.19	-$26.53	43% 128-168 (296)
└ Rei Sakamoto leg	Rei Sakamotoavg 78.5¢	$153.08	$182.33	+$56.68
└ Kasidit Samrej leg	Kasidit Samrejavg 9.9¢	$275.97	$181.86	-$83.2
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 7¢	$307.72	$329.69	+$21.98	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
1L 1lovejump	Rei Sakamotoavg 91.8¢	$1.0K	$320.53	-$20.31	35% 86-162 (248)
SU suntori	Rei Sakamotoavg 91.2¢	$283.79	$264.17	+$2.02	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
RN1	Rei Sakamotoavg 78¢	$220.32	$254.74	+$34.43	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 6.8¢	$255.25	$245.27	-$9.99	47% 279-315 (594)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Rei Sakamotoavg 89.1¢	$200.77	$201.3	+$0.52	56% 3878-3042 (6920)
38 38791873984189CTR	Kasidit Samrejavg 8.1¢	$2.3K	$166.67	+$321.05	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
BA babybells	Rei Sakamotoavg 78.5¢	$106.15	$111.06	+$20.23	25% 139-418 (557)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Rei Sakamotoavg 86.6¢	$93.59	$94.04	+$0.45	66% 122-63 (185)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Rei Sakamotoavg 86.9¢	$83.65	$88.13	+$4.48	40% 224-340 (564)
TRCM<$100	Rei Sakamotoavg 88¢	$85	$86.45	+$1.45	12% 59-436 (495)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Rei Sakamotoavg 89.8¢	$49.4	$51.43	+$2.03	24% 157-504 (661)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 11¢	$22	$37	+$15	36% 410-719 (1129)
machinelearned<$100	Rei Sakamotoavg 80¢	$25.2	$25.04	-$0.16	41% 599-859 (1458)
PA pauleta23<$100	Rei Sakamotoavg 90¢	$10	$10.39	+$0.39	33% 247-507 (754)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kasidit Samrejavg 14¢	$5.74	$5.33	-$0.41	49% 786-829 (1615)

Limousin

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$10,326.29

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$74.6

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

MadridTime

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$7,641.73

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$553.26

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Venusian

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$6,423.71

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$5.88

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

LightParadox

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$5,405.89

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$140.93

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$2,726.27

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$138.32

Record

50%

3334-3292 (6626)

Both legs:

Rei Sakamoto$1,620.2678¢+$324.24

Kasidit Samrej$1,088.0611.3¢-$462.56

thestingsnake

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$1,787.24

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$167.35

Record

28%

148-389 (537)

Flaznorp

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$795.55

Value

$822.84

PnL

+$27.29

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

NotJumpARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$1,071.74

Value

$444.03

PnL

+$13

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

Both legs:

Rei Sakamoto$189.5250¢+$470.1

Kasidit Samrej$546.7439.6¢-$457.1

thirdt1meARB<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$599.62

Value

$364.19

PnL

-$26.53

Record

43%

128-168 (296)

Both legs:

Rei Sakamoto$153.0878.5¢+$56.68

Kasidit Samrej$275.979.9¢-$83.2

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$307.72

Value

$329.69

PnL

+$21.98

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

1lovejump

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$1,012.39

Value

$320.53

PnL

-$20.31

Record

35%

86-162 (248)

suntori

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$283.79

Value

$264.17

PnL

+$2.02

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

RN1

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$220.32

Value

$254.74

PnL

+$34.43

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$255.25

Value

$245.27

PnL

-$9.99

Record

47%

279-315 (594)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$200.77

Value

$201.3

PnL

+$0.52

Record

56%

3878-3042 (6920)

38791873984189CTR

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$2,324.69

Value

$166.67

PnL

+$321.05

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

babybells

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$106.15

Value

$111.06

PnL

+$20.23

Record

25%

139-418 (557)

thatsabing0<$100

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$93.59

Value

$94.04

PnL

+$0.45

Record

66%

122-63 (185)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$83.65

Value

$88.13

PnL

+$4.48

Record

40%

224-340 (564)

TRCM<$100

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$85

Value

$86.45

PnL

+$1.45

Record

12%

59-436 (495)

BillBenter2026<$100

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$49.4

Value

$51.43

PnL

+$2.03

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$22

Value

$37

PnL

+$15

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

machinelearned<$100

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$25.2

Value

$25.04

PnL

-$0.16

Record

41%

599-859 (1458)

pauleta23<$100

Rei Sakamoto

Invested

$10

Value

$10.39

PnL

+$0.39

Record

33%

247-507 (754)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kasidit Samrej

Invested

$5.74

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$0.41

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

Research grade

NeutralRei Sakamoto at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rei Sakamoto

19 of 24 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Rei Sakamoto. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRei Sakamoto 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedRei Sakamoto 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rei Sakamoto 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rei Sakamoto wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.