Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Mateo Del Pino — but Juan Manuel La Serna won instead.
Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Mateo Del Pino
Resolved Juan Manuel La Serna. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Mateo Del Pino. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
18
Mateo Del Pino 39%
3 arb excluded
$2.9K
$-5.2K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 18 top traders (39%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Mateo Del Pinoavg 44.5¢ | $4.9K | — | $-4.9K | 50% 20187-20523 (40710) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Mateo Del Pinoavg 49.7¢ | $982.79 | — | -$982.79 | 51% 4504-4380 (8884) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 39.8¢ | $455.3 | $1.1K | +$688.55 | 53% 3273-2894 (6167) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Mateo Del Pinoavg 52¢ | $437.56 | $290.32 | -$147.24 | 53% 59038-51355 (110393) |
| └ Mateo Del Pino leg | Mateo Del Pinoavg 52¢ | $254.78 | — | -$254.78 | |
| └ Juan Manuel La Serna leg | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 63¢ | $182.78 | $290.32 | +$107.54 | |
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100 | Mateo Del Pinoavg 6.8¢ | $43.05 | — | -$43.05 | 52% 6711-6252 (12963) |
LI Limousin | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 73.2¢ | $388.98 | $531.2 | +$142.22 | 56% 942-736 (1678) |
MA MadridTime | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 75.8¢ | $228.09 | $296 | +$67.91 | 52% 830-771 (1601) |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 92.1¢ | $143.83 | $113 | -$30.83 | 53% 916-813 (1729) |
| └ Mateo Del Pino leg | Mateo Del Pinoavg 21.1¢ | $39.71 | — | -$39.71 | |
| └ Juan Manuel La Serna leg | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 92.1¢ | $104.12 | $113 | +$8.88 | |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Mateo Del Pinoavg 43.2¢ | $310.92 | — | -$101.54 | 60% 4225-2826 (7051) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 68¢ | $112.11 | $104.37 | -$7.74 | 52% 14121-12894 (27015) |
| └ Mateo Del Pino leg | Mateo Del Pinoavg 25.2¢ | $41.12 | — | -$41.12 | |
| └ Juan Manuel La Serna leg | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 68¢ | $70.99 | $104.37 | +$33.39 | |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Mateo Del Pinoavg 42.5¢ | $83.23 | — | -$83.23 | 57% 11866-8957 (20823) |
LI LightParadox | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 96.2¢ | $145.53 | $150 | +$4.47 | 54% 906-787 (1693) |
 VeryLucky888 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 92¢ | $149.48 | $73.37 | +$7.65 | 58% 44610-32488 (77098) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Mateo Del Pinoavg 39.3¢ | $28.61 | — | -$28.61 | 47% 10564-11815 (22379) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 90.1¢ | $51.03 | $55 | +$3.97 | 57% 18986-14047 (33033) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 63.4¢ | $33.74 | $40.89 | +$7.16 | 50% 25247-24961 (50208) |
HY hydra1248<$100 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 51.2¢ | $25.37 | $49.5 | +$24.13 | 67% 52-26 (78) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 81.6¢ | $18.44 | $20 | +$1.56 | 48% 6154-6562 (12716) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 65.8¢ | $15.74 | $16.97 | +$5.32 | 82% 6738-1455 (8193) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 92¢ | $2.4 | $5 | +$2.6 | 52% 8455-7711 (16166) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Mateo Del Pinoavg 22¢ | $0.28 | — | -$0.28 | 54% 6054-5063 (11117) |
Invested
$4,944.82
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
50%
20187-20523 (40710)
Invested
$982.79
Value
—
PnL
-$982.79
Record
51%
4504-4380 (8884)
Invested
$455.3
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$688.55
Record
53%
3273-2894 (6167)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$437.56
Value
$290.32
PnL
-$147.24
Record
53%
59038-51355 (110393)
Both legs:
Invested
$43.05
Value
—
PnL
-$43.05
Record
52%
6711-6252 (12963)
Invested
$388.98
Value
$531.2
PnL
+$142.22
Record
56%
942-736 (1678)
Invested
$228.09
Value
$296
PnL
+$67.91
Record
52%
830-771 (1601)
Invested
$143.83
Value
$113
PnL
-$30.83
Record
53%
916-813 (1729)
Both legs:
Invested
$310.92
Value
—
PnL
-$101.54
Record
60%
4225-2826 (7051)
Invested
$112.11
Value
$104.37
PnL
-$7.74
Record
52%
14121-12894 (27015)
Both legs:
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$83.23
Value
—
PnL
-$83.23
Record
57%
11866-8957 (20823)
Invested
$145.53
Value
$150
PnL
+$4.47
Record
54%
906-787 (1693)
VeryLucky888Invested
$149.48
Value
$73.37
PnL
+$7.65
Record
58%
44610-32488 (77098)
Invested
$28.61
Value
—
PnL
-$28.61
Record
47%
10564-11815 (22379)
Invested
$51.03
Value
$55
PnL
+$3.97
Record
57%
18986-14047 (33033)
Invested
$33.74
Value
$40.89
PnL
+$7.16
Record
50%
25247-24961 (50208)
Invested
$25.37
Value
$49.5
PnL
+$24.13
Record
67%
52-26 (78)
Invested
$18.44
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.56
Record
48%
6154-6562 (12716)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$15.74
Value
$16.97
PnL
+$5.32
Record
82%
6738-1455 (8193)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.6
Record
52%
8455-7711 (16166)
Invested
$0.28
Value
—
PnL
-$0.28
Record
54%
6054-5063 (11117)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
omnibus-076daa
CTRMateo Del Pino — $0
6512395314597884
CTRMateo Del Pino — $0
0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554
Juan Manuel La Serna — $1.1K
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CandleHammerDrums
CTRMateo Del Pino — $0
Limousin
Juan Manuel La Serna — $531.2
MadridTime
Juan Manuel La Serna — $296
Venusian
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thestingsnake
CTRMateo Del Pino — $0
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
ARBArbitrage — excluded