BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jaume Munar

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Jaume Munar (57%) · Jaume Munar at 54¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 15

Thiago Agustin Tirante47¢Jaume Munar53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaume Munar

Consensus Traders

Jaume Munar 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.0K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 53.5¢

-8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaume Munar at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaume Munar

12 of 21 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thiago Agustin Tirante47%

Jaume Munar54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaume Munar12 traders

Total Value$25.9K

Total Shares40,714

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Thiago Agustin Tirante9 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares29,571

Combined PnL-$57.28

Jaume Munar — 57%Thiago Agustin Tirante — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AC Accomplished-Framework	Jaume Munaravg 60.2¢	$8.2K	$8.4K	+$182.32	46% 292-343 (635)
RN1	Jaume Munaravg 49.5¢	$5.2K	$7.1K	+$1.9K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 37.9¢	$6.0K	$5.8K	-$141.71	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 38.7¢	$4.8K	$5.1K	+$282.92	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
└ Thiago Agustin Tirante leg	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 38.7¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$22.91
└ Jaume Munar leg	Jaume Munaravg 54.5¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$260
TRCMARB<$100	Jaume Munaravg 62¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$15.12	55% 4121-3315 (7436)
└ Jaume Munar leg	Jaume Munaravg 62¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$30
└ Thiago Agustin Tirante leg	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 38¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.88
FL flatbarrel	Jaume Munaravg 62¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$29.7	58% 2812-2017 (4829)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 39.8¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$312.51	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
VE Venusian	Jaume Munaravg 61.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0.57	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
SC SchruteBucks	Jaume Munaravg 62¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$15	56% 1967-1522 (3489)
VeryLucky888CTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$90	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI LimousinCTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 35.6¢	$970.92	$1.3K	+$296.1	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
FL Flaznorp	Jaume Munaravg 61.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$33.46	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jaume Munaravg 56.3¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	+$42.78	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Jaume Munar leg	Jaume Munaravg 56.3¢	$865.69	$822.08	+$3.35
└ Thiago Agustin Tirante leg	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 41¢	$293.28	$332.71	+$39.43
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Jaume Munaravg 58.7¢	$880	$990	+$110	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 37.5¢	$862.65	$853.83	-$8.82	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
└ Thiago Agustin Tirante leg	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 37.5¢	$553.29	$545.91	-$7.38
└ Jaume Munar leg	Jaume Munaravg 63.3¢	$309.36	$307.91	-$1.44
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 37.2¢	$1.1K	$814.91	+$6.86	53% 848-749 (1597)
└ Thiago Agustin Tirante leg	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 37.2¢	$436.76	$451.94	+$10.95
└ Jaume Munar leg	Jaume Munaravg 61.4¢	$362.24	$362.97	-$4.1
0xheavy888CTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 40¢	$163.45	$165.49	+$2.04	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 37¢	$134.97	$135.07	+$0.1	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
EU Eulhunter	Jaume Munaravg 61.9¢	$104.13	$112.81	+$8.67	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
EF efntrick<$100	Jaume Munaravg 56.5¢	$67.8	$78.6	+$8.4	49% 3711-3940 (7651)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 31.6¢	$27.28	$29.44	+$2.16	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Jaume Munaravg 59¢	$26.31	$26.53	+$0.22	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 36.3¢	$133.42	$24.02	+$6.64	60% 4593-3091 (7684)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Jaume Munaravg 61¢	$14.7	$15.53	+$0.83	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 41¢	$8.2	$8.1	-$0.1	45% 14412-17706 (32118)

Accomplished-Framework

Jaume Munar

Invested

$8,213.11

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$182.32

Record

46%

292-343 (635)

RN1

Jaume Munar

Invested

$5,229.09

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

LightParadoxCTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$5,981.94

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$141.71

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$4,777.76

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$282.92

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

Both legs:

Thiago Agustin Tirante$2,597.7738.7¢+$22.91

Jaume Munar$2,18054.5¢+$260

TRCMARB<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$4,850.61

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$15.12

Record

55%

4121-3315 (7436)

Both legs:

Jaume Munar$3,72062¢-$30

Thiago Agustin Tirante$1,130.6138¢+$14.88

flatbarrel

Jaume Munar

Invested

$3,682.87

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$29.7

Record

58%

2812-2017 (4829)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$2,864.67

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$312.51

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Venusian

Jaume Munar

Invested

$2,512.26

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0.57

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

SchruteBucks

Jaume Munar

Invested

$1,860

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$15

Record

56%

1967-1522 (3489)

VeryLucky888CTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$1,199.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$90

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LimousinCTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$970.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$296.1

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Flaznorp

Jaume Munar

Invested

$1,143.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$33.46

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$1,650.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$42.78

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Jaume Munar$865.6956.3¢+$3.35

Thiago Agustin Tirante$293.2841¢+$39.43

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Jaume Munar

Invested

$880

Value

$990

PnL

+$110

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$862.65

Value

$853.83

PnL

-$8.82

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

Both legs:

Thiago Agustin Tirante$553.2937.5¢-$7.38

Jaume Munar$309.3663.3¢-$1.44

1lovejumpARB<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$1,064.13

Value

$814.91

PnL

+$6.86

Record

53%

848-749 (1597)

Both legs:

Thiago Agustin Tirante$436.7637.2¢+$10.95

Jaume Munar$362.2461.4¢-$4.1

0xheavy888CTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$163.45

Value

$165.49

PnL

+$2.04

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

MadridTimeCTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$134.97

Value

$135.07

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Eulhunter

Jaume Munar

Invested

$104.13

Value

$112.81

PnL

+$8.67

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

efntrick<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$67.8

Value

$78.6

PnL

+$8.4

Record

49%

3711-3940 (7651)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$27.28

Value

$29.44

PnL

+$2.16

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$26.31

Value

$26.53

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

thestingsnakeCTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$133.42

Value

$24.02

PnL

+$6.64

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Jaume Munar

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15.53

PnL

+$0.83

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Research grade

NeutralJaume Munar at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jaume Munar

12 of 21 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaume Munar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.