Orleans: Otto Virtanen vs Dino Prizmic

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Otto Virtanen (70%) · Otto Virtanen at 51¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 16

Otto Virtanen51¢Dino Prizmic49¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Otto Virtanen

Consensus Traders

Otto Virtanen 70%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.8K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 50.5¢

-11% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Otto Virtanen51%

Dino Prizmic50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Otto Virtanen14 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares28,714

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Dino Prizmic6 traders

Total Value$890.03

Total Shares2,700

Combined PnL-$233.45

Otto Virtanen — 70%Dino Prizmic — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDino Prizmic 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperDino Prizmic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOtto Virtanen 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Otto Virtanen 70% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Otto Virtanenavg 43.2¢	$3.0K	$5.7K	+$2.7K	48% 214-230 (444)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Otto Virtanenavg 69.9¢	$6.4K	$4.9K	$-1.4K	54% 1605-1351 (2956)
RN1	Otto Virtanenavg 43¢	$2.9K	$4.5K	+$1.6K	58% 3746-2702 (6448)
MA MadridTime	Otto Virtanenavg 79.3¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	-$513.25	25% 203-620 (823)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 24.8¢	$948.45	$1.6K	+$620.98	51% 3157-3056 (6213)
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 24.8¢	$590.13	$1.2K	+$585.93
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 46¢	$358.31	$393.37	+$35.05
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 61.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$70.57	50% 1383-1403 (2786)
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 61.5¢	$834.1	$685.24	-$148.85
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 42¢	$440.38	$518.67	+$78.29
GC GC-P	Otto Virtanenavg 43.2¢	$613.15	$1.2K	+$549.78	16% 64-346 (410)
NM NM-P	Otto Virtanenavg 43.4¢	$542.5	$1.0K	+$482.5	60% 3439-2335 (5774)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Dino Prizmicavg 33.7¢	$704.5	$577.15	+$152	33% 56-112 (168)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 66.9¢	$578.43	$570.01	-$8.43	56% 3777-2944 (6721)
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 66.9¢	$379.64	$286.73	-$92.91
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 34.7¢	$198.79	$283.27	+$84.48
0xheavy888	Otto Virtanenavg 45¢	$300.15	$546.94	+$246.79	56% 99-79 (178)
TH thestingsnake	Otto Virtanenavg 54.4¢	$405.33	$275.86	+$20.53	15% 60-330 (390)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 56¢	$500.58	$237.48	-$102.98	48% 733-802 (1535)
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 43.4¢	$81.04	$153.24	+$74.86
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 56¢	$262.08	$84.24	-$177.84
LI LimousinARB<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 58.5¢	$296.68	$192.44	-$104.24	24% 201-642 (843)
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 58.5¢	$247.54	$145.96	-$101.58
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 69.2¢	$49.14	$46.48	-$2.65
BA babybellsARB<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 61.5¢	$157.95	$154	+$0.05	15% 64-357 (421)
└ Otto Virtanen leg	Otto Virtanenavg 61.5¢	$106.58	$85.83	-$19.83
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 35.8¢	$48.3	$68.18	+$19.88
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Dino Prizmicavg 55¢	$386.74	$126.57	-$260.17	61% 891-567 (1458)
LI LiquidifierCTR	Dino Prizmicavg 33¢	$221.39	$120.76	-$100.63	7% 6-82 (88)
machinelearned	Otto Virtanenavg 58.3¢	$110.8	$117.65	+$6.85	31% 268-583 (851)
PA pauleta23	Otto Virtanenavg 70.4¢	$90	$104.83	+$14.83	20% 100-408 (508)
PA Pan9X<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 43.3¢	$43.66	$78.04	+$34.38	48% 407-442 (849)
VE Venusian<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 83¢	$70.35	$63.29	-$7.06	24% 205-637 (842)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 73¢	$47.45	$42.58	-$4.87	12% 59-452 (511)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 17¢	$37.15	$39.26	+$2.11	24% 202-632 (834)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 35¢	$47.6	$24.48	-$23.12	52% 51-47 (98)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Otto Virtanenavg 44¢	$4.4	$8.2	+$3.8	22% 141-486 (627)

VeryLucky888

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$3,006.17

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

48%

214-230 (444)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$6,389.94

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

1605-1351 (2956)

RN1

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$2,920.28

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

58%

3746-2702 (6448)

MadridTime

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$2,954.53

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$513.25

Record

25%

203-620 (823)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$948.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$620.98

Record

51%

3157-3056 (6213)

Both legs:

Dino Prizmic$590.1324.8¢+$585.93

Otto Virtanen$358.3146¢+$35.05

FlaznorpARB<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$1,274.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$70.57

Record

50%

1383-1403 (2786)

Both legs:

Otto Virtanen$834.161.5¢-$148.85

Dino Prizmic$440.3842¢+$78.29

GC-P

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$613.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$549.78

Record

16%

64-346 (410)

NM-P

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$542.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$482.5

Record

60%

3439-2335 (5774)

thirdt1meCTR

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$704.5

Value

$577.15

PnL

+$152

Record

33%

56-112 (168)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$578.43

Value

$570.01

PnL

-$8.43

Record

56%

3777-2944 (6721)

Both legs:

Otto Virtanen$379.6466.9¢-$92.91

Dino Prizmic$198.7934.7¢+$84.48

0xheavy888

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$300.15

Value

$546.94

PnL

+$246.79

Record

56%

99-79 (178)

thestingsnake

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$405.33

Value

$275.86

PnL

+$20.53

Record

15%

60-330 (390)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$500.58

Value

$237.48

PnL

-$102.98

Record

48%

733-802 (1535)

Both legs:

Otto Virtanen$81.0443.4¢+$74.86

Dino Prizmic$262.0856¢-$177.84

LimousinARB<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$296.68

Value

$192.44

PnL

-$104.24

Record

24%

201-642 (843)

Both legs:

Dino Prizmic$247.5458.5¢-$101.58

Otto Virtanen$49.1469.2¢-$2.65

babybellsARB<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$157.95

Value

$154

PnL

+$0.05

Record

15%

64-357 (421)

Both legs:

Otto Virtanen$106.5861.5¢-$19.83

Dino Prizmic$48.335.8¢+$19.88

darkumbreon88CTR

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$386.74

Value

$126.57

PnL

-$260.17

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

LiquidifierCTR

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$221.39

Value

$120.76

PnL

-$100.63

Record

6-82 (88)

machinelearned

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$110.8

Value

$117.65

PnL

+$6.85

Record

31%

268-583 (851)

pauleta23

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$90

Value

$104.83

PnL

+$14.83

Record

20%

100-408 (508)

Pan9X<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$43.66

Value

$78.04

PnL

+$34.38

Record

48%

407-442 (849)

Venusian<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$70.35

Value

$63.29

PnL

-$7.06

Record

24%

205-637 (842)

BillBenter2026<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$47.45

Value

$42.58

PnL

-$4.87

Record

12%

59-452 (511)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$37.15

Value

$39.26

PnL

+$2.11

Record

24%

202-632 (834)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$47.6

Value

$24.48

PnL

-$23.12

Record

52%

51-47 (98)

ameisgoat11<$100

Otto Virtanen

Invested

$4.4

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$3.8

Record

22%

141-486 (627)

Research grade

NeutralOtto Virtanen at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Otto Virtanen

14 of 20 top traders (70%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Otto Virtanen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDino Prizmic 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperDino Prizmic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOtto Virtanen 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOtto Virtanen 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Otto Virtanen 70% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Otto Virtanen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.