Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Lorenzo Sonego — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Lorenzo Sonego
BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Olle Wallin vs Lorenzo Sonego
Resolved Lorenzo Sonego. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Lorenzo Sonego. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Lorenzo Sonego 86%
$54.9K
$5.1K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 21 top traders (86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 92.2¢ | $18.3K | $19.8K | +$1.5K | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 88¢ | $15.5K | $17.6K | +$2.1K | 53% 6331-5613 (11944) |
K5 k56 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 94.3¢ | $4.7K | $5.0K | +$285.9 | 57% 900-666 (1566) |
LI LightParadox | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 93.8¢ | $2.8K | $3.0K | +$186.34 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
65 6512395314597884 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 91.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$26.16 | 51% 5012-4882 (9894) |
LI Limousin | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 93.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$129.59 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
GL glennyorkshire | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 89.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$164.72 | 45% 203-248 (451) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 88.6¢ | $16.9K | $1.3K | +$679.02 | 42% 8168-11360 (19528) |
PA Paul973973 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 94.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$60.83 | 89% 1069-137 (1206) |
EU Eulhunter | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 93.7¢ | $326.34 | $342 | +$15.66 | 54% 6325-5389 (11714) |
TH thestingsnake | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 92.7¢ | $317.71 | $342.87 | +$25.16 | 60% 4506-3007 (7513) |
GA Gaditima | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 86¢ | $87.04 | $101.21 | +$14.17 | 47% 7500-8312 (15812) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 89.5¢ | $61.35 | $68.55 | +$7.2 | 51% 6512-6277 (12789) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 89¢ | $86.15 | $30 | +$3.85 | 64% 5376-2995 (8371) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Olle Wallinavg 11¢ | $56.3 | — | -$56.3 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 92¢ | $23 | $25 | +$2 | 57% 19424-14373 (33797) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 90¢ | $18 | $20 | +$2 | 55% 9930-8242 (18172) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Olle Wallinavg 5¢ | $16.01 | — | -$16.01 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 87¢ | $48.35 | $10 | -$4.35 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Olle Wallinavg 11¢ | $87.75 | — | -$22.3 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Lorenzo Sonegoavg 87¢ | $8.7 | $10 | +$1.3 | 52% 9018-8169 (17187) |
Invested
$18,294.76
Value
$19.8K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$15,468.88
Value
$17.6K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
53%
6331-5613 (11944)
Invested
$4,714.1
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$285.9
Record
57%
900-666 (1566)
Invested
$2,808.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$186.34
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$2,564.45
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$26.16
Record
51%
5012-4882 (9894)
Invested
$2,064.14
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$129.59
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$1,386.08
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$164.72
Record
45%
203-248 (451)
Invested
$16,873.76
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$679.02
Record
42%
8168-11360 (19528)
Invested
$1,003
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$60.83
Record
89%
1069-137 (1206)
Invested
$326.34
Value
$342
PnL
+$15.66
Record
54%
6325-5389 (11714)
Invested
$317.71
Value
$342.87
PnL
+$25.16
Record
60%
4506-3007 (7513)
Invested
$87.04
Value
$101.21
PnL
+$14.17
Record
47%
7500-8312 (15812)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$61.35
Value
$68.55
PnL
+$7.2
Record
51%
6512-6277 (12789)
Invested
$86.15
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.85
Record
64%
5376-2995 (8371)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$56.3
Value
—
PnL
-$56.3
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$23
Value
$25
PnL
+$2
Record
57%
19424-14373 (33797)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$18
Value
$20
PnL
+$2
Record
55%
9930-8242 (18172)
Invested
$16.01
Value
—
PnL
-$16.01
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$48.35
Value
$10
PnL
-$4.35
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$87.75
Value
—
PnL
-$22.3
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.3
Record
52%
9018-8169 (17187)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
MadridTime
Lorenzo Sonego — $19.8K
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
Lorenzo Sonego — $17.6K
k56
Lorenzo Sonego — $5.0K
LightParadox
Lorenzo Sonego — $3.0K
6512395314597884
Lorenzo Sonego — $2.6K
Limousin
Lorenzo Sonego — $2.1K
glennyorkshire
Lorenzo Sonego — $1.6K
ferrariChampions2026
Lorenzo Sonego — $1.3K
Paul973973
Lorenzo Sonego — $1.1K
Eulhunter
Lorenzo Sonego — $342