Hersonissos 3: Ioannis Xilas vs Sergey Fomin

12 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Sergey Fomin (57%) · Sergey Fomin at 60¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 16

Ioannis Xilas41¢Sergey Fomin59¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sergey Fomin

Consensus Traders

Sergey Fomin 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$178.26

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 59.5¢

+18% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralSergey Fomin at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sergey Fomin

12 of 21 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ioannis Xilas41%

Sergey Fomin60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sergey Fomin12 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares9,078

Combined PnL+$582.75

Ioannis Xilas9 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares8,767

Combined PnL-$761.01

Sergey Fomin — 57%Ioannis Xilas — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Sergey Fomin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Ioannis Xilas) and the top 1000 (19 on Sergey Fomin) disagree here.

sharpSergey Fomin 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSergey Fomin 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedIoannis Xilas 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sergey Fomin 63% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945	Sergey Fominavg 46.7¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$519.32	1% 2-163 (165)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$416.38	54% 1599-1343 (2942)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sergey Fominavg 55.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$57	48% 709-765 (1474)
└ Sergey Fomin leg	Sergey Fominavg 55.8¢	$650.1	$692.93	+$42.83
└ Ioannis Xilas leg	Ioannis Xilasavg 49.3¢	$561.65	$461.82	-$99.83
VE Venusian	Sergey Fominavg 55.8¢	$921.04	$961.73	+$40.69	24% 204-633 (837)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 46.5¢	$970.93	$907.47	-$63.45	34% 161-313 (474)
TH thestingsnake	Sergey Fominavg 55.4¢	$859.39	$740.91	-$4.48	16% 60-325 (385)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 47.1¢	$819.09	$706.28	-$82.81	50% 1378-1394 (2772)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 44.1¢	$984.77	$484.57	+$14.65	32% 52-112 (164)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Sergey Fominavg 54.3¢	$323.98	$320.22	-$3.76	56% 3774-2943 (6717)
└ Sergey Fomin leg	Sergey Fominavg 54.3¢	$180.78	$198.23	+$17.45
└ Ioannis Xilas leg	Ioannis Xilasavg 47.5¢	$143.2	$121.99	-$21.21
LI Limousin	Sergey Fominavg 58¢	$265.62	$258.85	-$6.76	24% 200-638 (838)
0xheavy888CTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 63.7¢	$409.45	$256.95	-$152.5	55% 94-78 (172)
MA MadridTime	Sergey Fominavg 54.4¢	$150.53	$156.24	+$5.71	24% 200-618 (818)
BA babybellsCTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 46.6¢	$123.23	$96.47	-$26.76	15% 61-356 (417)
LI LightParadox<$100	Sergey Fominavg 51.5¢	$61.26	$71.39	+$10.13	24% 201-627 (828)
VeryLucky888CTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 63.5¢	$111.7	$53.25	-$31.05	48% 207-227 (434)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Sergey Fominavg 56.1¢	$29.75	$29.94	+$0.19	11% 57-450 (507)
TRCM<$100	Sergey Fominavg 58¢	$27.26	$28.2	+$0.94	6% 26-410 (436)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sergey Fominavg 36¢	$15.34	$25.58	+$10.23	48% 405-439 (844)
SC SchruteBucks	Sergey Fominavg 37.7¢	$304.5	$15.32	+$5.52	18% 106-477 (583)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Sergey Fominavg 53¢	$9.54	$10.8	+$1.26	53% 50-44 (94)
PA pauleta23<$100	Sergey Fominavg 60¢	$10	$10	+$0	19% 97-408 (505)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 52.3¢	$6.59	$5.04	-$1.55	30% 248-574 (822)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Ioannis Xilasavg 63¢	$3.15	$2	-$1.15	22% 134-483 (617)

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$2,461.26

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$519.32

Record

2-163 (165)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$1,699.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$416.38

Record

54%

1599-1343 (2942)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$1,211.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$57

Record

48%

709-765 (1474)

Both legs:

Sergey Fomin$650.155.8¢+$42.83

Ioannis Xilas$561.6549.3¢-$99.83

Venusian

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$921.04

Value

$961.73

PnL

+$40.69

Record

24%

204-633 (837)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$970.93

Value

$907.47

PnL

-$63.45

Record

34%

161-313 (474)

thestingsnake

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$859.39

Value

$740.91

PnL

-$4.48

Record

16%

60-325 (385)

FlaznorpCTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$819.09

Value

$706.28

PnL

-$82.81

Record

50%

1378-1394 (2772)

thirdt1meCTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$984.77

Value

$484.57

PnL

+$14.65

Record

32%

52-112 (164)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$323.98

Value

$320.22

PnL

-$3.76

Record

56%

3774-2943 (6717)

Both legs:

Sergey Fomin$180.7854.3¢+$17.45

Ioannis Xilas$143.247.5¢-$21.21

Limousin

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$265.62

Value

$258.85

PnL

-$6.76

Record

24%

200-638 (838)

0xheavy888CTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$409.45

Value

$256.95

PnL

-$152.5

Record

55%

94-78 (172)

MadridTime

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$150.53

Value

$156.24

PnL

+$5.71

Record

24%

200-618 (818)

babybellsCTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$123.23

Value

$96.47

PnL

-$26.76

Record

15%

61-356 (417)

LightParadox<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$61.26

Value

$71.39

PnL

+$10.13

Record

24%

201-627 (828)

VeryLucky888CTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$111.7

Value

$53.25

PnL

-$31.05

Record

48%

207-227 (434)

BillBenter2026<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$29.75

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.19

Record

11%

57-450 (507)

TRCM<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$27.26

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$0.94

Record

26-410 (436)

Pan9X<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$15.34

Value

$25.58

PnL

+$10.23

Record

48%

405-439 (844)

SchruteBucks

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$304.5

Value

$15.32

PnL

+$5.52

Record

18%

106-477 (583)

Eulhunter<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$9.54

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$1.26

Record

53%

50-44 (94)

pauleta23<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

97-408 (505)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$6.59

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$1.55

Record

30%

248-574 (822)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$3.15

Value

PnL

-$1.15

Record

22%

134-483 (617)

Research grade

NeutralSergey Fomin at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Sergey Fomin

12 of 21 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Sergey Fomin. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Ioannis Xilas) and the top 1000 (19 on Sergey Fomin) disagree here.

sharpSergey Fomin 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSergey Fomin 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedIoannis Xilas 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sergey Fomin 63% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sergey Fomin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.