Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 3 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (19%) · Yes at 19¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 1

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 19%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$753.77

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 18.5¢

-65% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 16 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares14,030

Combined PnL+$448.27

No13 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares15,446

Combined PnL+$305.5

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Yesavg 52.2¢	$7.2K	$7.7K	+$448.41	55% 1781-1468 (3249)
RN1	Noavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$125	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
us391	Noavg 44.6¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$49.94	51% 1713-1675 (3388)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 47.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$120.46	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 47.9¢	$574.19	$771.03	+$196.83	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 60.9¢	$728.97	$640.37	-$88.6	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.9¢	$407.57	$448.39	+$40.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55.2¢	$321.4	$191.98	-$129.42
AY ay118	Noavg 43¢	$480	$474.42	-$5.58	47% 36-41 (77)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 45.8¢	$654.14	$462.5	+$101.13	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 47.5¢	$471.93	$425.2	-$29.31	50% 2545-2532 (5077)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 48.1¢	$242.05	$259.79	+$17.75	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 43.4¢	$86.01	$160.49	+$74.48	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 48.4¢	$159.82	$155.48	-$4.34	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816CTR	Yesavg 52.9¢	$100	$100	+$0	70% 338-145 (483)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.2¢	$46.44	$46.3	-$0.14	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$23.94	$24.4	+$0.47	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 48¢	$19.81	$20.23	+$0.41	62% 1191-725 (1916)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 35¢	$7.3	$15.44	+$8.14	58% 10691-7671 (18362)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,204.34

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$448.41

Record

55%

1781-1468 (3249)

RN1

Invested

$2,350

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$125

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

us391

Invested

$2,367.54

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$49.94

Record

51%

1713-1675 (3388)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,229.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$120.46

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

SnakeBall

Invested

$574.19

Value

$771.03

PnL

+$196.83

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$728.97

Value

$640.37

PnL

-$88.6

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

No$407.5760.9¢+$40.82

Yes$321.455.2¢-$129.42

ay118

Invested

$480

Value

$474.42

PnL

-$5.58

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$654.14

Value

$462.5

PnL

+$101.13

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$471.93

Value

$425.2

PnL

-$29.31

Record

50%

2545-2532 (5077)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$242.05

Value

$259.79

PnL

+$17.75

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$86.01

Value

$160.49

PnL

+$74.48

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$159.82

Value

$155.48

PnL

-$4.34

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816CTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

70%

338-145 (483)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.44

Value

$46.3

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$23.94

Value

$24.4

PnL

+$0.47

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$19.81

Value

$20.23

PnL

+$0.41

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$8.14

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 16 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.